現(xiàn)金流量的公司價(jià)值分析[外文翻譯]

包括英文原文和中文翻譯

Free Cash Flow, Enterprise Value, and Investor Caution
Harlan Platt
College of Business Administration
Northeastern University
Sebahattin Demirkan
School of Management
SUNY Binghamton University
Marjorie Platt
College of Business Administration
Northeastern University
Abstract：By analyzing actual cash flows in comparison with enterprise values (market capitalization plus debt minus cash) we document that the market dramaticall undervalues firms. The findings suggest that the equity market appears to have an extraordinarily high discount rate which negates future earnings in the calculus of firm value. That is, the discount rate is so high that the vast majority of future cash flows are virtually ignored.
Our research finds that stock prices do not reflect future corporate earnings. This finding contrasts with the well known statement in finance textbooks that “the value of a firm equals the present discounted value of future cash flows.” In fact, we find that enterprise values are substantially less than the present discounted value of future cash flows. A one-dollar increase in future cash flows produces only a 75 cent increase in a firm’s enterprise value.
The implication of our work is clear: companies are worth far more than the market believes. This provides strong support to the idea behind the private equity industry. We realize that of late private equity firms have overpaid for acquisitions and may lose their entire investment during the current phase of deleveraging. Yet, if private equity firms acquire companies at reasonable prices using less debt, they are likely to create substantial value as a consequence of the fact that companies are so undervalued by the market relative to their cash flows.
There are no previous research efforts following our methodological design based on actual cash flows. Rather, .prior research studies have focused on the relationship between forecasted cash flows (by market analysts) and enterprise value. Our approach focuses on a different question – the relationship between discounted future cash flows and the current market value as posited by financial theory.

自由現(xiàn)金流量，企業(yè)價(jià)值，與投資者注意

Harlan Platt
東北大學(xué), 工商管理學(xué)院
Sebahattin Demirkan
紐約州立賓厄姆頓大學(xué), 管理學(xué)院
Marjorie Platt
東北大學(xué), 工商管理學(xué)院
摘要：通過(guò)比較分析實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流量與企業(yè)價(jià)值（市場(chǎng)資本總額加上債務(wù)減去現(xiàn)金），我們的文件說(shuō)，市場(chǎng)大大低估了公司。調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，股市似乎有一個(gè)非常高的折扣率在計(jì)算公司價(jià)值時(shí)否定未來(lái)收益。也就是說(shuō)，折扣率如此之高，未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流量的絕大多數(shù)幾乎被忽略。
我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，股票價(jià)格不反映未來(lái)的企業(yè)盈利。與此發(fā)現(xiàn)形成對(duì)比，在金融教科書中眾所周知的聲明是，“一個(gè)公司的價(jià)值等于未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流量目前的貼現(xiàn)值”。事實(shí)上，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)價(jià)值大大高于目前的未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流量的貼現(xiàn)值。未來(lái)增加的1美元現(xiàn)金流量只產(chǎn)生了75%的企業(yè)價(jià)值。
我們工作的含義是明確的：公司價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)高于市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為的更多。這對(duì)背后的私人股本行業(yè)的想法提供了強(qiáng)有力的支持。我們認(rèn)識(shí)到，近來(lái)私人股本公司已為收購(gòu)付超額付出，并可能會(huì)在當(dāng)前去杠桿化時(shí)期失去他們的全部投資。然而，如果私人股本公司使用較少的債務(wù)，以合理的價(jià)格收購(gòu)公司，他們很可能要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造一個(gè)重大價(jià)值，原因是基于現(xiàn)金流量公司被市場(chǎng)相低估。
以前沒有按照我們以實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流量為基礎(chǔ)的方法設(shè)計(jì)的研究成果。相反，以前的研究都集中在預(yù)測(cè)的現(xiàn)金流量（按市場(chǎng)分析師的結(jié)果）和企業(yè)價(jià)值之間的關(guān)系。我們研究方法的重點(diǎn)是不同的問(wèn)題 —— 貼現(xiàn)的未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流量和以金融理論所假定的當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值關(guān)系。
關(guān)鍵詞：企業(yè)價(jià)值，實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流量，現(xiàn)金流量，估價(jià)