“熱錢”問題研究

摘    要

改革開放特別是加入WTO以來，我國進一步融入了世界經(jīng)濟之中，外貿(mào)依存度不斷提高，呈現(xiàn)了開放格局下的經(jīng)濟快速增長趨勢。但在這種經(jīng)濟大開放和大發(fā)展的過程中，也同時產(chǎn)生了一些值得關(guān)注的問題。其中，緣于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡和對外經(jīng)濟失衡造成的流動性過剩及受人民幣匯率變化因素影響的國際“熱錢”對我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生前所未有的沖擊，也是當前我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中面臨的突出問題。
本文就國際“熱錢”對我國沖擊問題進行分析，首先國內(nèi)外研究文獻進行綜述，其次，引入模型并進行回歸驗證，并得出結(jié)論、提出對策建議，最后就日本經(jīng)濟泡沫的分析闡述了諸多啟示。

關(guān)鍵詞：熱錢；人民幣升值；短期資本流動；日本經(jīng)濟泡沫
 
ABSTRACT

Reform and opening up policy, especially since WTO accession, China's further integration into the world economy, increasing dependence on foreign trade, showing an open pattern of rapid economic growth.  In this economy, opening up and the  process of large-scale development, and also produced a number of issues of concern.Which, due to the domestic economy and external economic imbalances, structural imbalances caused by excess liquidity and exchange rate changes by factors of international "hot money" the impact on China's economy is also facing China's economic development in the outstanding issues.
Aiming at the international "hot money" on the issue of the impact analysis, literature review study at home and abroad, the introduction of the model and its validation, and come to the conclusion proposed in this paper to the Japanese economic bubble of the last analysis has also been a lot of inspiration.

Key words：Hot money ；RMB appreciation ；Short-term capital flows ；The Japanese economic bubble

目    錄

第一章  文獻綜述 1
一、國外研究與國內(nèi)研究綜述 1
二、研究的意義 4
三、研究的思路與方法 4
第二章  引入模型及驗證 5
一、短期資本流動模型的引入 5
二、“熱錢”效應(yīng)檢驗 6
三、熱錢治理的對策 13
第三章  日本泡沫經(jīng)濟及其啟示 15
一、廣場協(xié)議 15
二、日本泡沫經(jīng)濟的教訓(xùn) 17
三、日本“失去的十年”的啟示 18
結(jié)束語 20
參考文獻 21
致   謝 22