摘 要
關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)作為一種項(xiàng)目管理方法，已經(jīng)在多個(gè)歐美企業(yè)獲得成功應(yīng)用，并在一些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家受到了相當(dāng)?shù)闹匾暫脱芯?。關(guān)鍵鏈管理把項(xiàng)目看作一個(gè)系統(tǒng)來(lái)實(shí)施對(duì)項(xiàng)目的管理，改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中僅從工序邏輯方面來(lái)考慮項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃的缺點(diǎn)，使項(xiàng)目周期縮短，考慮資源約束以及人的行為等綜合因素，打破了傳統(tǒng)計(jì)劃的模式，提出面向項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度的計(jì)劃方法并大大提高生產(chǎn)效率。
而現(xiàn)有關(guān)鍵鏈方法大多都是在確定性網(wǎng)絡(luò)中研究及運(yùn)用，且部分雖在隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的研究，但大都是在可預(yù)期的基礎(chǔ)上把隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)環(huán)境轉(zhuǎn)化為確定性網(wǎng)絡(luò)后進(jìn)行研究。而現(xiàn)實(shí)存在諸多不可預(yù)期的不確定性因素，導(dǎo)致資源瓶頸漂移，項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵鏈也隨著改變，原有項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃不能繼續(xù)執(zhí)行。而Petri網(wǎng)既是圖形工具又是數(shù)學(xué)工具，具有圖形直觀性、能描述沖突和并發(fā)，被認(rèn)為是迄今研究離散事件系統(tǒng)的最有力的工具。Petri網(wǎng)因其強(qiáng)大的并發(fā)處理功能日顯優(yōu)越，并且已經(jīng)被逐步成功地應(yīng)用到制造企業(yè)中，因此將關(guān)鍵鏈的先進(jìn)思想與Petri網(wǎng)的有機(jī)結(jié)合將有力的推動(dòng)動(dòng)態(tài)多項(xiàng)目管理中不確定性問(wèn)題的解決。
本文在Petri網(wǎng)理論基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了新的項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵鏈識(shí)別方法，通過(guò)各種緩沖設(shè)置，來(lái)消除項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行中的一些可預(yù)期的不確定性因素，前攝性的制定出具有穩(wěn)定性的基準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，并分析項(xiàng)目單位資源的利用狀況；當(dāng)隨機(jī)事件發(fā)生必定會(huì)影響現(xiàn)有的項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，通過(guò)對(duì)單位資源監(jiān)控，運(yùn)用反應(yīng)性調(diào)度方法，根據(jù)單位資源情況迅速判斷新的關(guān)鍵鏈，并做出相應(yīng)的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃安排。
為使理論推向?qū)嵺`層面，本文對(duì)關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)在船廠項(xiàng)目中應(yīng)用做了全面的實(shí)證分析，基于Petri網(wǎng)對(duì)船廠動(dòng)態(tài)多項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵鏈管理做了總體性的探討，并通過(guò)Witness仿真驗(yàn)證分析。
關(guān)鍵詞：Petri網(wǎng)；關(guān)鍵鏈；資源約束；多項(xiàng)目管理
Abstract
As a method of project management, critical chain scheduling method, which has been successfully applyed in some American and European enterprises, and researched in developed countries . Critical chain schedule considers the project as a system to implement its management,CCS has improved Network plan technology in many areas, It has make up the defect of tradition Network plan, which only consider the relations of activities. It breaks the tradition schedule model and proposes the method of planning which faces to project schedule.
But, the most research and application of critical chain are in certain networks.Otherwise ,a small in random ,but most are based on the foreseeable, change the random into certain. But there are many unpredictable factors of uncertainty in reality, will make the bottleneck of the resources shifted, and break the original project plan. As mathematical tool and graphical tool, with the graphical intuitive and describe conflict and concurrent. Petri net is considered the most powerful tool to study the discrete event system, it is superior to dispose event of parallel, and it had been successfully applied to the manufacture.So, the advanced theory of critical chain combination of Petri net will be a strong impetus to deal with the uncertainty of the dynamic multi-projects management.
The paper based on Petri net theory: Judge the critical chain of project management, make a variety of buffer settings to eliminate the uncertainty of the expected implementation of the projects, and develop the stability of the baseline project plan.then, make a proactive baseline scheduling scheduling and analyze the utilization of unit resource in the projects; Secondly, when a major event occur .It will definitely affect the existing project planning, resource bottlenecks shift also make the projects changed , monitor the unit resource status and establish reactive scheduling , judge the critical chain ,of new projects quickly, and make a appropriate project scheduling.
In order to apply the Theory in reality , The article make totality empirical analysis of the critical chain in shipyard projects management, and make a general discuss for the critical chain of the dynamic multi-projects management,and stimulate the project periods through witness simulation software.

Keywords: Petri net; Critical Chain; Resource Constraints; multi-projects management
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
目 錄 I
Contents I
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及意義 1
1.1.1研究背景 1
1.1.2研究意義 1
1.2 研究綜述 2
1.3研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法及技術(shù)路線 4
1.3.1 研究?jī)?nèi)容 4
1.3.2 研究方法 5
1.3.3 技術(shù)路線 5
1.4 本文創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 5
第2章 關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)理論 7
2.1 關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)的發(fā)展 7
2.1.1 約束理論 7
2.1.2 關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)的基本思想 7
2.1.3 關(guān)鍵鏈與關(guān)鍵路徑的區(qū)別 8
2.2 關(guān)鍵鏈的識(shí)別方法及緩沖設(shè)置 9
2.2.1 現(xiàn)有關(guān)鍵鏈的識(shí)別方法 9
2.2.2 緩沖設(shè)置 16
2.3 關(guān)鍵鏈技術(shù)的應(yīng)用步驟 25
2.4 本章小結(jié) 25
第3章基于PETRI網(wǎng)多項(xiàng)目網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃描述 26
3.1 PETRI網(wǎng)及其特性 26
3.1.1 PETRI網(wǎng)簡(jiǎn)介 26
3.1.2 PETRI網(wǎng)的特性及類別 27
3.2 PETRI網(wǎng)與多項(xiàng)目網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃 31
3.2.1 多項(xiàng)目網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃 31
3.2.2多項(xiàng)目管理和PETRI網(wǎng)的關(guān)系 32
3.2.3 多項(xiàng)目管理與PETRI網(wǎng)間的映射 34
3.3 本章小結(jié) 36
第4章 多項(xiàng)目環(huán)境下基于PETRI網(wǎng)關(guān)鍵鏈的識(shí)別與緩沖設(shè)置 37
4.1基于PETRI網(wǎng)多項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵鏈的識(shí)別 37
4.1.1多項(xiàng)目下基于PETRI網(wǎng)的關(guān)鍵鏈識(shí)別流程 37
4.1.2基于PETRI網(wǎng)多項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵鏈的識(shí)別步驟 37
4.2 緩沖的設(shè)置 40
4.2.1 匯入緩沖設(shè)置 40
4.2.2 項(xiàng)目緩沖設(shè)置 41
4.3 算例分析 42
4.4 本章小結(jié) 47
第5章 基于PE..