摘 要
生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)現(xiàn)象是企業(yè)生產(chǎn)提前期呈現(xiàn)類似供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)的現(xiàn)象。生產(chǎn)提前期的準(zhǔn)確制定對企業(yè)生產(chǎn)計劃的制定和控制意義重大，但生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)現(xiàn)象使企業(yè)面臨計劃“神經(jīng)質(zhì)”的困境，產(chǎn)生對客戶準(zhǔn)時交單的擔(dān)憂。因此，生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)問題是企業(yè)必須正視和解決的問題。本文在深入分析供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)研究現(xiàn)狀和生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生環(huán)境的基礎(chǔ)上，詳細研究了生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的形成機理、影響因素、測度技術(shù)和控制方法問題。
圍繞生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的形成機理，本文充分考慮實際生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的各種不確定因素，得出通過時間綜合癥是其產(chǎn)生因素，并從經(jīng)濟學(xué)、行為學(xué)、制造業(yè)的生產(chǎn)方式這三個角度分析了對生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的影響，總結(jié)了生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)和供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)的聯(lián)系與區(qū)別，從而構(gòu)建了生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)測度和控制的理論基礎(chǔ)；圍繞生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的測度技術(shù)，本文分析了隨機Petri網(wǎng)（SPN）建模的優(yōu)勢，并運用模糊理論，提出在不確定條件下SPN建立的方法和步驟，建立了有效的測度公式，結(jié)合產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的運作算例測度了提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)；針對生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的控制方法，本文從和諧管理理論體系的思想出發(fā)，構(gòu)建了提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)的控制分析框架。著重研究了管理不確定因素的關(guān)鍵鏈緩沖設(shè)置方法，從而為企業(yè)有效控制提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)提供技術(shù)和引導(dǎo)工具。
為了系統(tǒng)地將研究的理論和方法應(yīng)用于制造企業(yè)中，本文以鎮(zhèn)江船用柴油機廠為案例背景，將提出的測度方法應(yīng)用于曲軸加工車間，并針對該公司存在的影響提前期的問題，給予提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)控制的一般策略。驗證了測度技術(shù)和控制方法的實際操作意義。

關(guān)鍵詞：生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)；形成機理；不確定因素；隨機Petri網(wǎng)；和諧管理；緩沖

Abstract
The phenomenon of production lead time bullwhip effect is similar to the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Correctly determining production lead time is of great significance to making and control production plan. However, production lead time bullwhip effect puts enterprises in an awful predicament, in which enterprises are faced with plan neuroticism, and causes anxiety about delivering goods to customers in time. Therefore, production lead time bullwhip effect is a problem on which enterprises must pay seriously attention and give proper treatment. Based on analyzing the research status quo of bullwhip effect and the environment of production lead time bullwhip effect in a deep going way, this thesis studies formation mechanism, influence factors, measurement techniques and controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect in detail.
For studying formation mechanism of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis considers all kinds of uncertain factors in actual production systems, and thus derives that the creating factor is “passing time syndrome”. Furthermore, how to impact production lead time bullwhip effect is proposed in economics, behavioristics and the mode of manufacturing production angles. Based on above analysis, this thesis summarizes relations and differences between production lead time bullwhip effect and supply chain bullwhip effect. Thereby, theoretical principle about measurement and control is rightly presented. For studying measurement techniques of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis analyzes the strength of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) in modeling, combined with fuzzy theory, and then it develops methods and procedures of building SPN under uncertain conditions. Meanwhile, it establishes a useful measure formula to judge the degree of production lead time bullwhip effect, which is used in a production process case. For studying controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis borrows ideas of harmonious management theory, and brings about a controlling framework. Concerned on uncertain factors in production, a corresponding setting method about buffer in critical chain is carefully designed. To some extent, this method provides enterprises an effective technology and a guiding tool, by which to mitigate production lead time bullwhip effect.
In order to systematically apply these theories and methods to manufacturing enterprises, this thesis finally chooses Zhenjiang Diesel Engine Factory as empirical research. Proposed measurement method is used in bent axle processing workshop, and thus production lead time bullwhip effect is proved. On the other hand, controlling tactics about production lead time bullwhip effect is suggested to the company based on the existing problems of lead time. This case demonstrates that measurement techniques and controlling means have practical significance.

Key words production lead time bullwhip effect; formation mechanism; uncertain factors; stochastic Petri nets; harmonious management; buffer
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究的背景及意義 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意義 1
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.1 牛鞭效應(yīng)的存在與成因 2
1.2.2 牛鞭效應(yīng)的量化問題 4
1.2.3 牛鞭效應(yīng)的減弱與控制 4
1.3 研究內(nèi)容、方法及創(chuàng)新點 6
1.3.1 研究內(nèi)容 6
1.3.2 研究方法 7
1.3.3 創(chuàng)新點 8
第2章 生產(chǎn)提前期牛鞭效應(yīng)問題的相關(guān)理論 9
2.1 隨機Petri網(wǎng)技術(shù) 9
2.1.1 隨機Petri網(wǎng)介紹 9
2.1.2 隨機Petri網(wǎng)的分析方法 10
2.2 模糊數(shù)的隨機P..