理性政府下的貨幣危機(jī)及其傳染分析報(bào)告
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[摘 要] 本文在理性政府的假設(shè)下，討論了貨幣危機(jī)均衡的多重性與唯一性以及貨幣危機(jī)的傳染。在貨幣投機(jī)攻擊成本和收益固定的模型中，經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面處于危機(jī)區(qū)時(shí)，基本面的不確定性，并不能消除多重均衡。當(dāng)貨幣投機(jī)攻擊的成本和收益都與經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面相關(guān)時(shí)，不管是靜態(tài)模型還是動(dòng)態(tài)模型，貨幣危機(jī)的均衡都是唯一的。當(dāng)其他國(guó)家的貨幣貶值時(shí)，本國(guó)維持固定匯率的收益和放棄固定匯率時(shí)的信譽(yù)損失下降，使本國(guó)政府傾向于放棄固定匯率。
[關(guān)鍵詞] 貨幣危機(jī)、投機(jī)攻擊、經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面、最優(yōu)停止、傳染

[Abstract] Under the assumption of rational government, the paper discusses the multiplicity and uniqueness of currency crises equilibrium and the contagion of currency crises. In the model with fixed cost and payoff of speculative attack, when the fundamental is in crisis zone, the uncertainty of fundamental cannot eliminate multiple equilibria. However, when the cost and payoff of speculative attack are relevant to the fundamental, the static model together with the dynamic model shows that the equilibrium of currency crises is unique. As the devaluation of other currency makes both domestic benefit of fixed exchange rate and reputation loss of devaluation decline, domestic government is inclined to abandon the fixed regime.
[Keywords] Currency crises, Speculative Attack, Economic Fundamental, Optimal Stopping, Contagion

目錄
一、 引言
二、固定投機(jī)攻擊成本模型
三、可變投機(jī)攻擊成本下的靜態(tài)模型
四、可變投機(jī)攻擊成本下的動(dòng)態(tài)模型
五、危機(jī)的傳染
六、結(jié)束語(yǔ)
參考文獻(xiàn)
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