阿根廷的貨幣危機(jī)：過去和未來分析報(bào)告
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【摘 要】阿根廷的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)引起了人們對(duì)阿根廷是否會(huì)發(fā)生貨幣危機(jī)的關(guān)注。本文介紹了70年代以來阿根廷歷史上的貨幣危機(jī)并分析了阿根廷目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。作者認(rèn)為，阿根廷經(jīng)濟(jì)中最嚴(yán)重的問題就是大量的公共債務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，而造成這兩個(gè)問題的深層次原因就是阿根廷目前的貨幣制度。大量的公共債務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退已經(jīng)使阿根廷發(fā)生貨幣危機(jī)只是時(shí)間問題，一旦市場失去信心，貨幣危機(jī)就會(huì)隨時(shí)爆發(fā)。
【關(guān)鍵詞】阿根廷，貨幣危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，公共債務(wù)

[Abstract] The economic situation of Argentina draws attentions to the occurrence of another currency crises in Argentina. The paper presents a chronology of the Argentine Currency Crises since 1970 and analyzes the present economic condition of Argentina. The author argues that two worst problems in Argentine economy are large-volume public debt and economic recession, and the underlying factor resulting in these problems is the monetary regime in effect. Large-volume public debt and economic recession make the occurrence of currency crises be a problem of time, which depends on market confidence.
[Keywords] Argentina, Currency crises, economic recession, public debt
一、 阿根廷的經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定計(jì)劃與貨幣危機(jī)
二、 阿根廷當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況分析
三、 經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇與貨幣危機(jī)：痛苦的選擇
四、 結(jié)束語
參考文獻(xiàn)
[1] Choueiri, Nada and Graciela Kaminsky (1999), “Has the Nature of Crises Changed? A Quarter Century of Currency Crises in Argentina” IMF working Paper, No. WP/99/152
[2] Dornbush, Rudiger and Mario Henrigue Simonsen (1987), “Inflation Stabilization with Incomes Policy support: A Review of the Experience in Argentina, Brazil and Israel”, NBER working Paper No. W2153.
[3] Drazen, Alan and Paul R. Masson (1994), “Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, pp. 735-54.
[4] IMF(2000), Public Information Notice No. 00/84;
[5] IMF(2001), Country Report No. 01/90