摘 要
烏江是貴州省內(nèi)第一大河，烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐的興建將極大改善烏江的航運(yùn)條件，為烏江區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)和航運(yùn)事業(yè)帶來(lái)了新的契機(jī)，烏江干流梯級(jí)水利樞紐將配套建設(shè)通航設(shè)施，但通航設(shè)施存在著通航設(shè)施建設(shè)進(jìn)度不一致、承船箱尺寸不一致、通過(guò)時(shí)間不一致、通航流量不一致等問(wèn)題，直接形成“短板”效應(yīng)，隨著沿江經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，日益增長(zhǎng)的運(yùn)輸需求與樞紐通航設(shè)施通過(guò)能力之間將產(chǎn)生矛盾，為未雨綢繆、最大限度地提高烏江通航設(shè)施通行效率，充分發(fā)揮烏江黃金水道的優(yōu)勢(shì)，合理利用運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中各種資源，優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)各貨類(lèi)船舶的高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案已迫在眉睫。
烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域的船舶貨運(yùn)組織屬于復(fù)雜運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)，目前對(duì)于樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織的研究主要以定性分析為主，定量分析較少且沒(méi)有站在綜合運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃的角度分析，而針對(duì)烏江的相關(guān)研究至今尚未涉及。由于烏江船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性，構(gòu)建的理論優(yōu)化模型與實(shí)際可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生偏差，優(yōu)化的船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案的可行性需要驗(yàn)證，計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)的發(fā)展為其提供了手段，為此本文針對(duì)烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域通航環(huán)境特點(diǎn)，嘗試采用理論優(yōu)化與仿真模擬相結(jié)合的新方法，優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)出烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案。
本論文首先分析多梯級(jí)樞紐的建設(shè)對(duì)烏江船舶貨運(yùn)組織帶來(lái)的影響；其次針對(duì)烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)特點(diǎn)，改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化模型，構(gòu)建出廣義成本最小的烏江高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織優(yōu)化模型，其中引入單重休假規(guī)則M/G/1樞紐排隊(duì)系統(tǒng)模型確定船舶通過(guò)樞紐時(shí)間，并求解出初步優(yōu)化方案；接著針對(duì)烏江船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)離散特性，基于arena平臺(tái)構(gòu)建出面向?qū)ο蟮姆抡婺Ｐ?，以?yàn)證理論優(yōu)化方案的可行性及存在的問(wèn)題；最后通過(guò)理論優(yōu)化方案與仿真模擬的交互優(yōu)化過(guò)程，最終提出適合烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域貨運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案。
關(guān)鍵字：烏江 多梯級(jí)樞紐 網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化改進(jìn)模型 arena仿真建模 高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案

Abstract
Wujiang River is the largest river in Guizhou province, but the Wu River shipping channel condition have not been able to meet the needs of development of shipping. the construction of cascade hydro-projects will greatly improve the shipping condition of Wujiang River and bring opportunity for the developing of regional economy and the shipping industry, the multi-hub cascade of Wujiang will be supporting the shipping facilities, but there are several problem about shipping facilities: each shipping facilities has inconsistent construction progress, different size of ship lift, different time to have ship passed, different navigation flow problem and other issues, leading to a "short board" effect, by the development of economic along the Wujiang River, the conflict will be created by the different growing demand of transportation and passing capacity of navigation hub, bring a great difficulty for the organization of shipping in restriction of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects. To plan ahead to maximize the efficiency of high-grade channel and navigation facilities in Wujiang ,giving full play to the advantages of the Wujiang River golden waterway, rational using of transport network resources, a efficient multi-cargo organization program should be made so that the whole channel Wujiang cascade hydro-projects district will be eased off.
Currently, the qualitative analysis play a main role in the research of shipping organization in the hub region, quantitative analysis is not much and can’t analysis the whole system in a overall view, what’s more, the shipping organization like Wujiang River multi-cascade hydro-projects issue has not yet been addressed. Network optimization model often be taken used of in solving the complex organization freight transport networks, but the limitations goal of network optimization model can not make a comprehensive assessment optimization results. Computer simulation technology have gradually entered the field of transportation planning, but simulation technology mainly work out as a tool of validation and eva luation, taking use the simulation technology to optimize will be effected by subjective factor and difficult to find the optimal solution.
Based on the above reasons, the following aspects will be taken in the research work. First, qualitative analysis the influence of construction of a multi-cascade hydro-projects on shipping organization, then based on the characteristics of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects, improving the exist network optimization model to make out a lowest generalized cost model of shipping organization in Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects region, solving the model to get the initial optimization shipping organization program. on the other hand, introduction the idea of queuing theory to analysis the multi-cascade hydro-projects. Then, on the based of analysis of the discrete freight system of Wujiang multi-cascade region, building the simulation model in a ideological of object-oriented to simulate and test the initial program to find out the possible problem with the initial program. Finally, taking use of computer simulation technology and mathematical programming method in general to optimize the initial program of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping organization, getting a reasonable program which can take use of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping syste..