摘要：
有關(guān)天山云杉種群的研究有不少報(bào)道，如叢者福[4]研究了天山云杉種群水平分布格局；李建貴，潘存德等[5]通過用 Hegyi 的單木競爭指數(shù)模型定量分析了天山云杉的種內(nèi)競爭強(qiáng)度；李建貴等[6]研究了天山云杉種群統(tǒng)計(jì)與生存分析,但這些研究并未涉及生命表分析或未對(duì)生命表進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析，也未對(duì)天山云杉種群數(shù)量進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列預(yù)測。本文通過對(duì)天山云杉林種群年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、生命表、虧損率曲線、存活曲線、死亡曲線、4個(gè)函數(shù)(生存率函數(shù)、累計(jì)死亡率函數(shù)、死亡密度函數(shù)、危險(xiǎn)率函數(shù)) 以及種群數(shù)量的時(shí)間序列預(yù)測分析，以期真實(shí)反映天山云杉林種群結(jié)構(gòu)，預(yù)測其未來發(fā)展趨勢，為合理保護(hù)保護(hù)利用天山云杉林木資源提供依據(jù)。

Abstract: The analysis of life table, the curves of lose rate, survival, mortality rate and survival function of the population showed that the population had tow peaks of mortality at Ⅱand Ⅸ age class, and survival curve of the population were belonged to Deevey Ⅲ; The functions used in static life table could well explain the structure and dynamic of Picea schrenkiana population. Time sequence prediction models for population after 20,40,60,80,100,140 years indicated the numbers of young individuals would be relative rich, Population structure is stable.
Key words: Picea schrenkiana; population quantity; structure dynamics
參考文獻(xiàn)
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