某市停車需求預(yù)測(cè)及停車設(shè)施規(guī)劃管理研究

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摘要 隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，我國(guó)車輛保有量迅速增加，許多城市都面臨著嚴(yán)峻的停車規(guī)劃和管理問題，停車場(chǎng)地的供給與停車需求嚴(yán)重失衡，且違規(guī)停車現(xiàn)象十分嚴(yán)重。停車泊位的供需矛盾日益突出，隨之而來的負(fù)面影響也越來越大，因此，如何解決好停車問題已十分迫切。
文章首先分析了中國(guó)城市的停車現(xiàn)狀及其原因，總結(jié)了目前大中型城市的停車問題，特別是停車需求和停車場(chǎng)地供給間的總量失衡問題。其次借助于國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究，從停車需求基本概念出發(fā)，總結(jié)影響停車需求總量和需求分布的各方面因素；分析和歸納相關(guān)停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型，并比較其適用性和優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)。最后以某市為例，選取停車生成率模型，對(duì)某市未來五年的汽車保有量和停車需求總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果顯示，未來五年，某市的汽車保有量將以平均每年18.28%的速度增長(zhǎng)，隨之而來的停車需求總量也在不斷上升，汽車保有量與停車總需求（泊位數(shù)）的比例約為3.6:1。基于預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，從政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、規(guī)劃建設(shè)等方面對(duì)某市未來的停車管理提出相關(guān)策略。
關(guān)鍵詞：停車需求 影響因素 預(yù)測(cè)模型 管理策略



Abstract With the rapid development of national economy, car ownership in China increased rapidly. Many cities are faced with the grim problem of parking planning and management. Parking demand and the supply of parking spaces are unbalanced, and violation of parking phenomenon is very serious. The contradiction between supply and demand of parking garages is prominent increasingly. The subsequent negative impact is becoming bigger and bigger. Therefore, how to solve the parking problem is very urgent.
This paper analyzes the parking status quo and the reasons of China urban firstly, summary of the current large and medium-sized city parking problem, especially the problem of the amount of imbalance between demand and supply of parking spaces. Secondly, with the aid of related research at home and abroad, starting from the concept of parking demand, summarizes the facts that influence the parking total demand and demand distribution. Summarizes and analyzes related parking demand prediction model, and compares the applicability and advantages and disadvantages. At last, taking an example of Zhenjiang, selects parking generation rate model, forecasting the car ownership and total parking demand in the next five years of Zhenjiang. The results show, in the next five years, car ownership of Zhenjiang will growing at 18.28% a year on average. The amount of parking demand is also rising, car ownership and parking aggregate demand (berth) at a ratio of about 3.6:1. Based on the predicted results, from the policy, economy, technology, planning and construction, etc. strategies are put forward for the future of Zhenjiang parking management.
Key words parking demand influence factor prediction model management strategies

目 錄
第一章 緒 論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.1.1中國(guó)城市的停車問題 1
1.1.2停車需求與供給間的失衡 2
1.2國(guó)內(nèi)外停車需求與停車設(shè)施發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀 3
1.2.1國(guó)外停車需求與停車設(shè)施規(guī)劃研究 3
1.2.2國(guó)內(nèi)停車需求與停車設(shè)施規(guī)劃研究 4
1.3論文的研究意義 5
第二章 停車需求特性 6
2.1停車基本特性參數(shù) 6
2.2停車需求特性 6
2.3停車需求影響因素 7
2.3.1停車需求總量的影響因素 7
2.3.2停車需求分布的影響因素 8
第三章 停車需求預(yù)測(cè)方法 9
3.1停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型 9
3.1.1停車生成率模型 9
3.1.2用地與交通影響分析模型 9
3.1.3土地利用模型 10
3.1.4出行吸引模型 11
3.1.5多元回歸分析預(yù)測(cè)模型 12
3.2停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)比較 13
3.3基于泊位共享的停車需求預(yù)測(cè) 13
3.3.1停車泊位共享理論 13
3.3.2基于泊位共享的停車需求預(yù)測(cè)方法 15
第四章 以某市為例進(jìn)行停車需求預(yù)測(cè) 16
4.1某市基本概況 16
4.2模型選擇 16
4.3停車生成率模型的建立 16
4.4模型的實(shí)際應(yīng)用 18
第五章 某市未來停車管理相關(guān)策略 23
結(jié)論 25
致謝 26
參考文獻(xiàn) 27