上市公司會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更研究--以我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)為例

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摘要 由于會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)是指企業(yè)對(duì)其結(jié)果不確定的交易或事項(xiàng)以最近可以利用的信息為基礎(chǔ)所作的判斷，對(duì)會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的變更帶有很大的主觀性；又由于信息不對(duì)稱性，外部人員不能很好的評(píng)價(jià)上市公司作出的會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的合理性，因此，會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更已逐漸成為我國(guó)上市公司用來進(jìn)行利潤(rùn)操縱的手段。隨著我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)黃金十年的終結(jié)，近年來煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展速度放緩，相應(yīng)的會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更與公司業(yè)績(jī)呈現(xiàn)出一定的相關(guān)關(guān)系。
煤炭行業(yè)是我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)，是典型的周期性行業(yè)，受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的影響，其產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量、消費(fèi)量和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)也呈現(xiàn)出一定趨勢(shì)，是反映實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展景氣與否的風(fēng)向標(biāo)；同時(shí)，煤炭行業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈多樣化，當(dāng)作為整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游的煤炭行業(yè)產(chǎn)能受到影響，下游行業(yè)產(chǎn)能也隨之波動(dòng)；煤炭行業(yè)的重要戰(zhàn)略地位使得國(guó)家對(duì)其監(jiān)管力度和范圍很廣。對(duì)我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展的介紹為實(shí)證研究進(jìn)行了鋪墊。
對(duì)我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)上市公司會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更的實(shí)證研究是本文的核心。本文以滬深兩市A股煤炭行業(yè)上市公司2004-2013會(huì)計(jì)年度的年度報(bào)表為研究樣本，引入修正Jones模型和應(yīng)計(jì)利潤(rùn)總額模型并進(jìn)行分析后，得出煤炭行業(yè)上市公司確實(shí)存在著利潤(rùn)操縱的事實(shí)。再通過對(duì)煤炭行業(yè)上市公司會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更的年度、內(nèi)容及其對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響程度進(jìn)行分析，得出具體操縱利潤(rùn)的方式呈現(xiàn)出階段性特點(diǎn)，操縱內(nèi)容集中在應(yīng)收賬款壞賬準(zhǔn)備計(jì)提比例變更和固定資產(chǎn)折舊年限、殘值率變更，且在增加盈利和減少盈利兩種自發(fā)性會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)選擇變更中，上市公司更傾向于選擇后者。本文最后對(duì)上市公司、注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師審計(jì)和外部監(jiān)管者提出了幾條建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：煤炭行業(yè) 上市公司 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更 實(shí)證研究

Research on Accounting Estimates of Listed Companies
--A China’s Coal Industry Perspective
Abstract Accounting estimate is such judgement made by enterprises on transactions or events of uncertain results that based on latest information available, so to some extent, changes in accounting estimates are characterized by subjectivity. And because of information asymmetry, outside parties cannot well eva luate the rationality of changes in accounting estimates made by listed companies. Therefore, changes in accounting estimates have gradually become the means of profit manipulation by China's listed companies. With the end of ten years’ prosperity of China's coal industry, the overall performance of such companies is of a declining trend. There seems to be a certain correlation between the corresponding changes in accounting estimates and the performance of theses companies.
The coal industry is the fundamental industry of China’s national economy. As is a typical cyclical industry, affected by macroeconomic trends, coal industry has become the indicator of the development of real economy by its output, consumption and corporate profits. Diversity is a characteristic of the coal industry chain. While coal industry, the upstream industry of the entire national economy, is affected with its capacity, the capacity of downstream industry is at fluctuation. The important strategic position of the coal industry has led to the strict regulation by the government. The introduction of China’s coal industry sets the stage for empirical research.
The empirical study of the changes in accounting estimates of China’s coal industry is the core of this article. This paper is based on the samples of A-share companies of China’s coal industry that have changed accounting estimates in the annual reports issued during 2004-2013. By using modified Jones model and accrued profit model, there lies the fact that profit manipulation exists in listed companies by analysis. And by analyzing the time, content of changes in accounting estimates and its influence toward profit, it is concluded that the specific way of manipulation profit verifies in different period, and the content focused on the accounts receivable provision for bad debt provision ratio changes and fixed number of year of the depreciation of fixed assets and the salvage value rate changes. Another conclusion is that listed companies tend to prefer reducing profits by using spontaneous changes in accounting estimates. Finally, the paper put forward several suggestions for listed company, CPA auditing and external regulators.

Key words: Coal industry Listed companies Changes in accounting estimates Empirical research

目 錄
引 言 1
第一章 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)理論概述 2
1.1 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)相關(guān)理論 2
1.1.1 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的含義 2
1.1.2 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的類型 2
1.2 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更相關(guān)理論 3
1.2.1 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更的含義 3
1.2.2 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更的情形 3
1.3 會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更與利潤(rùn)操縱的關(guān)系 4
1.3.1 利潤(rùn)操縱的概念界定 4
1.3.2 利用會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更操縱利潤(rùn)的類型 4
第二章 我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展概述 6
2.1 我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)基本情況 6
2.2 我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展特點(diǎn) 8
2.2.1 周期性行業(yè)，受經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展周期影響 8
2.2.2 產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈多樣化，與相關(guān)行業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度高 8
2.2.3 受國(guó)家政策影響，監(jiān)管力度較大 9
第三章 我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)上市公司會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)變更的實(shí)證研究 11
3.1 模型和統(tǒng)計(jì)工具的選擇 11
3.2 樣本的選擇和數(shù)據(jù)來源 12
3.3 實(shí)證研究 13
3.3.1 對(duì)操縱性應(yīng)計(jì)利潤(rùn)的實(shí)證結(jié)果 13
3.3.2 對(duì)變更年度..