國(guó)際直接投資與對(duì)外貿(mào)易互動(dòng)發(fā)展的實(shí)證分析——以江蘇省為例

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[摘 要] 進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的貿(mào)易互動(dòng)給世界貿(mào)易帶來了巨大的推動(dòng)力，與此同時(shí)，也給各國(guó)各地區(qū)的經(jīng)貿(mào)帶來了新的不確定因素。國(guó)際直接投資(FDI)在全球貿(mào)易投資占有絕大部分的比重，為此，了解和研究這一課題有著一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先闡述了國(guó)際直接投資和國(guó)際貿(mào)易之間關(guān)系的相關(guān)經(jīng)典理論，通過對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的和動(dòng)態(tài)的外商直接投資的貿(mào)易效應(yīng)理論劃分，通過相關(guān)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法來分析江蘇省國(guó)際直接投資和對(duì)外貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系。本文研究結(jié)果表明，從整體上講，江蘇省外商直接投資和進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易之間呈現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期相互影響關(guān)系，表現(xiàn)為互補(bǔ)關(guān)系;江蘇省外商直接投資對(duì)工業(yè)制成品進(jìn)出口、初級(jí)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口都產(chǎn)生了積極的影響，在優(yōu)化江蘇省進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)上起了一定的作用;最后，根據(jù)理論基礎(chǔ)與實(shí)證研究結(jié)果，本文針對(duì)江蘇省外商直接投資對(duì)進(jìn)出口總體及結(jié)構(gòu)的影響關(guān)系，再基于區(qū)域差異因素，深度挖掘江蘇省經(jīng)貿(mào)發(fā)展的弊端和限制因素，由此提出相應(yīng)政策建議。

[關(guān)鍵詞] FDI 江蘇對(duì)外貿(mào)易 結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整

Interaction of FDI and foreign trade development of the empirical analysis——In Jiangsu province as an example

[Abstract] In the 21st century, economic globalization, trade interaction to the World Trade tremendous impetus, at the same time, but also to the countries and regions of the trade brought new uncertainties. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the global trade and investment occupies most of proportion, therefore, to understand and study the subject has a certain practical significance. This paper describes the first international investment and international trade relations between the relevant classical theory, through the traditional and dynamic trade effects of foreign direct investment into the theory, application-specific measurement of foreign direct investment in Jiangsu Province Import and Export Trade. Results of this study show that, from the overall perspective, Jiangsu Province, foreign direct investment and export trade show with the long-term interaction between the two main complementary relationship; Jiangsu Province Foreign Direct Investment in industrial products import and export, import and export of primary products are had a positive impact in the export structure optimization Jiangsu province played a certain role; Finally, based on theoretical foundation and empirical findings, this paper Jiangsu Province, import and export of foreign direct investment and the structure of the overall relationship, into regional differences factors, digging Jiangsu Foreign trade Development drawbacks and limitations, and propose policy recommendations.

[Key words]FDI Foreign trade of Jiangsu Structural adjustment



目 錄

一、引 言 1
（一）研究背景 1
（二）提出問題 1
二、國(guó)際直接投資（FDI）和對(duì)外貿(mào)易的相關(guān)理論 2
（一）蒙代爾的替代模型以及小島清的互補(bǔ)模型理論 2
（二）產(chǎn)品生命周期理論 3
（三）國(guó)際生產(chǎn)折中理論 4
三、國(guó)際直接投資與江蘇省對(duì)外貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀分析 4
（一）江蘇省國(guó)際直接投資概述 4
（二） 江蘇省進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易情況 7
（三） 江蘇省國(guó)際直接投資和對(duì)外貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn) 9
四、江蘇FDI與對(duì)外貿(mào)易存在的問題 10
（一）FDI過于集中化 10
（二）出口附加值偏低，能源消耗嚴(yán)重 11
（三）外貿(mào)依存度高 11
（四）有形貿(mào)易快速增長(zhǎng)掩蓋對(duì)外服務(wù)輸出的不足 11
五、江蘇FDI與對(duì)外貿(mào)易的實(shí)證分析 12
（一）FDI對(duì)本省貿(mào)易的影響 12
（二）貿(mào)易對(duì)本省FDI的影響 13
六、FDI與對(duì)外貿(mào)易的政策建議 14
（一）促進(jìn)內(nèi)資企業(yè)對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展 14
（二）建立完善的外貿(mào)指標(biāo)體系 15
（三）改善和優(yōu)化投資環(huán)境 15
（四）引進(jìn)國(guó)外先進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)和技術(shù) 15
（五）大力發(fā)展江蘇的本土企業(yè) 16
（六）積極實(shí)施市場(chǎng)多元化戰(zhàn)略 16
（七）優(yōu)化對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 16
（八）完善對(duì)外貿(mào)易方式 17
（九）實(shí)施區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略 17