淺析擱淺船舶的安全性綜合評判

摘要  由于擱淺船舶的安全性缺乏公認的指標，而且特別受環(huán)境的影響，因此擱淺船舶的安全性具有模糊性。本文在闡述擱淺船舶安全性研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎上，系統(tǒng)分析了影響擱淺船舶安全性的主要因素，利用DELPHI專家調(diào)查法和層次分析法（AHP），確定評判擱淺船舶安全性的指標體系和指標權重，以及指標與各評判等級之間的隸屬函數(shù)，運用模糊數(shù)學中的多級綜合評判方法，建立了預測擱淺船舶安全性的模糊綜合評判模型。評判模型可廣泛應用于船方、主管機關及有關決策人員，在船舶發(fā)生擱淺事故時，對擱淺船舶的安全狀況進行評估，為船舶采取及時、合理、科學的救助方法和脫淺方法提供依據(jù)，以期減少人為判斷上的失誤，保障海上人命和財產(chǎn)的安全。

關鍵詞  擱淺船舶  安全  AHP法  模糊評判

The Comprehensive Assessment of the Safety of The Grounding vessel

[Abstract]  Accidents of ship grounding will cause such disasters as ship hull damage, environmental pollu2tion, lost lives and soon. The existence of fuzzy characteristic of the assessment for the safety of grounding vessels from the non-recognized standard which is determined by the circumstances of the sea environment and the conditions of the grounding vessels. In this paper, we set the safety of grounding vessel as the search subject. On the base of analyze the current situation of the safety of grounding vessel, the penman analyze the main factor of which influence the safety of the grounding vessel. And takes attention of DELPHI expert questionnaire and the AHP, ensure the system of assess safety of grounding vessel and the weight of each index, use the method of step comprehensive assessment in the fuzzy mathematics. The pemnan establishes the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model, which forecast safety of grounding vessel. The model can widely use for decision-maker onboard and relative decision-making person, to judge the safety of grounding vessel. Which provide foundation for embarrassed vessel to adopt seasonable and reasonable method to rescue or deviate, in order to reduce the human error, ensure of the safety of property and human life on the sea.

[Key word]  Grounding vessel  Safety  AHP  Fuzzy assessment

目 錄

引 言 1
第1章　船舶擱淺及安全性研究 3
1.1 船舶擱淺 3
1.1.1 船舶擱淺的定義 4
1.1.2船舶擱淺的危害 4
1.1.3船舶擱淺事故的原因 4
1.2 擱淺船舶安全性 5
1.3 擱淺船舶安全性的模糊性 6
第2章　擱淺船舶安全評判方法 8
第3章 安全性的影響因素分析 11
3.1 擱淺特征 11
3.2船舶特征 13
3.3 環(huán)境特征 16
第4章 建立安全性綜合評判的模型 19
4.1評判指標權重 19
4.11　DELPHI法 19
4.12專家調(diào)查法 20
4.2隸屬函數(shù)的建立 27
4.3模型的建立 44
第5章  評判模型的應用舉例 48
結束語 51
致謝語 52
參考文獻 53