提 要
在市場經(jīng)濟條件下，企業(yè)的生存和發(fā)展不可能沒有投資和融資、賒購和賒銷；在市場主體和客體充滿變數(shù)的情況下，企業(yè)財務(wù)都潛伏著不同程度的風險。企業(yè)發(fā)生財務(wù)風險，輕則影響融資，重則導致破產(chǎn)。因此，監(jiān)測與防范財務(wù)風險對所有企業(yè)尤其是中小企業(yè)，具有緊迫性和現(xiàn)實意義。
本文對財務(wù)風險涵義及其屬性進行了概括，對xx石油天然氣股份有限公司（以下簡稱xx石油）面臨的主要財務(wù)風險進行了分析。在分析面臨的財務(wù)風險基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了xx石油如何加強財務(wù)風險管理的建議，最后得出結(jié)論。
一、財務(wù)風險。本文認為財務(wù)風險是客觀存在的，是可以控制的。其實質(zhì)是一種微觀經(jīng)濟風險，是企業(yè)理財活動風險的集中體現(xiàn)。狹義的財務(wù)風險是指籌資風險，廣義的財務(wù)風險包括籌資風險、投資風險、現(xiàn)金流量風險、利率風險和匯率風險。
二、xx石油面臨的主要財務(wù)風險。xx石油已于2005年4月在紐約和香港上市，完成了海外籌資計劃，所以本文沒有詳細分析它的籌資風險。價格風險雖然沒有出現(xiàn)在財務(wù)風險管理的書籍中，但本文認為由于它對xx石油經(jīng)濟效益的影響很大，所以本文將其列為xx石油的財務(wù)風險來分析。目前，xx石油面臨的主要財務(wù)風險有：價格風險、匯率風險、利率風險、現(xiàn)金流量風險和投資風險。
三、加強財務(wù)風險管理的建議。本文從以下幾個方面對xx石油提出了建議：
1．建立財務(wù)風險衡量和預警系統(tǒng)；
2．完善內(nèi)部控制制度；
3．應(yīng)用衍生金融工具規(guī)避風險；
4．加強投資風險管理；
5．建立風險基金；
6．建立財務(wù)風險管理的組織系統(tǒng)；
7．注重財務(wù)風險管理人才的培養(yǎng)。
本文最后指出了不足，并將衍生金融工具與風險管理、內(nèi)部控制體系建設(shè)作為自己今后繼續(xù)學習和研究的方向。

ABSTRACT
Under the market economy condition, enterprise's survival and the development not impossible not to have the investment and financing, buys on credit with the selling on credit； In market main body and in object fill variable situation, enterprise finance all ambush varying degree risk. The enterprise has the financial risk, affects financing lightly, the heavy piece causes the bankruptcy. Therefore, the monitor and the guard finance risk to all enterprise small and medium-sized enterprise, has the pressing and the practical significance in particular.
In this thesis,the author summarizes the definition and characters of financial risks,analyzes the major financial risks that face PetroDaqing,and proposes to PetroDaqing how to strengthen the management of financial risk.Consequently he reaches the conclusion of the thesis.
Financial risk.Financial risk is one kind of microeconomic risks in substance resulting from companies’financing activity.It is objective but controllable.To a narrow sense,it refers to only financing risk;to a broad sense,it includes the risk of financing,investing,cash flow,interest rate and exchange rate,etc.
The major financial risks confronting PetroDaqing.As a major oil company,Petrodaqing bears both the common characters as other company and the unique characters in oil and gas industry.Because PetroDaqing has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange,Inc.and the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong,and has fulfilled its goal to finance overseas,the thesis focus on more about the risks of price,exchange rate,interest rate,cash flow and investing instead of mentioning too much of the financing risk.
Suggestion to strengthen the management of financial risk.It is a new and critical issue for Petrodaqing to consider how to strengthen the control and management of financial risk when facing emerging competition market.In the end,the article came to suggestion to Petrodaqing in terms of following aspects:
1．Establish the measurement and alarming system of financial risk;
2．Improve internal control;
3．Minimize risks by using financial derivatives;
4．Strengthen the management of investing risk;
5．Establish risk fund；
6．Establish the management system of financial risk;
7．Pay attention to the training of financial risk management experts.
The author draw the conclusion based on the analyzing and point out the
shortcomings of the thesis.He plans to make further study regarding to the derivatives and risk management,and the internal control system.


提 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及意義 2
1.1.1 研究背景 2
1.1.2 研究意義 2
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.1 國外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.2 國內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 3
1.3 研究方法及結(jié)構(gòu)體系 4
第2章 財務(wù)風險的相關(guān)理論 6
2.1 財務(wù)風險的定義及特征 6
2.1.1 財務(wù)風險的定義 6
2.1.2 財務(wù)風險的特征 6
2.2 財務(wù)風險的生成傳導 7
2.3 財務(wù)風險的分類 9
2.3.1 按財務(wù)活動的環(huán)節(jié)分類 9
2.3.2 按風險產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果分類 10
2.3.3 按風險涉及的對象分類 11
2.4 財務(wù)風險的分析 11
2.4.1 財務(wù)風險定性分析法 11
2.4.2 財務(wù)風險定量分析法 12
第三章 xx石油面臨的主要財務(wù)風險分析 14
3.1價格風險 14
3.1.1．國際市場油價影響 14
3.1.2．國內(nèi)油氣價格影響 15
3.2 匯率風險 16
3.3利率風險 18
3.4現(xiàn)金流量風險 19
3.4.1．現(xiàn)金收付風險 19
3.4.2．資金流動風險 20
3.4.3．信用風險 21
3.4.4．存貨占用資金風險 23
3.5投資風險 24
3.5.1．短期投資風險 24
3.5.2．長期投資風險 25
第四章預警系統(tǒng)模型建立以及風險管理的建議 27
4.1xx石油公司財務(wù)預警模型建立 27
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