大型商場火災公眾責任保險風險評估方法及應用研究

摘  要

近年來，大型商場由于安全管理不善，導致特大火災事故綿綿不斷，從火災事故統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，我們知道，造成這些重大火災事故，大部分都與責任人或責任因素有關(guān)，但由于各地火災公共責任保險的投保面窄，投保額低，政府在災害事故的善后工作中承擔著巨大的壓力。 這種狀況既不利于社會的穩(wěn)定，也不利于經(jīng)濟社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此，在積極預防災害、加強安全管理的同時，充分發(fā)揮火災公眾責任保險的作用，加快建立因他方責任而造成的第三者財產(chǎn)損失和人身傷害的補償機制，顯得十分緊迫和必要。
保險公司應提升服務(wù)水平，充分發(fā)揮保險經(jīng)濟杠桿的作用，根據(jù)保險標的的不同風險實行浮動費率，體現(xiàn)“獎優(yōu)罰劣”的目的。作為保險部門，通過火災風險評估可以全面考察商場的火災風險狀況，研究商場的火災風險如何隨外界條件的改變而變化，以便為尋求最優(yōu)的安全投資提供可靠的理論依據(jù)。它的主要任務(wù)是準確識別系統(tǒng)中存在的火災風險因素，并對這些火災風險因素的影響程度做出恰當?shù)脑u估，量化被評估對象的火災風險狀況，為提出控制與處理事故的措施和方案奠定基礎(chǔ)?？梢?，如何科學地評估大型商場火災風險狀況，既有利于火災公眾責任保險業(yè)務(wù)穩(wěn)定經(jīng)營，也為核保提供技術(shù)支持。因此，它是保險行業(yè)迫切需要解決的問題，它為制定合理的火災公眾責任保險費率和出具防災防損建議提供科學依據(jù)。
本文就火災公眾責任保險在全面推行過程中，對一定會遇到的問題作了較為細致的研究。其主要結(jié)論如下：
（1）在全面了解國內(nèi)外火災公眾責任保險實施的基礎(chǔ)上，詳細論述現(xiàn)階段我國火災公眾責任保險強制實施的重要性和緊迫性。論述國內(nèi)外火災風險評估方法研究現(xiàn)狀、發(fā)展趨勢以及在保險行業(yè)的應用狀況。
（2）論文對商場火災危險性進行了分析，討論了因素集、評估集、單級評估、評估計算模型和多級評估模型，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了以商場建筑自身安全、滅火救援力量、疏散系統(tǒng)、人員特征以及防火管理為子集的大型商場火災風險模糊評估的三級指標體系，采用專家調(diào)查表方法確定了評估指標的權(quán)重系數(shù)。
（3）模糊綜合評估方法可以對難以定量的多因素體系做出定量評估，它可以將定量的問題以及人們對此問題的主觀判斷有數(shù)量的形式表達出來，并進行模糊運算處理。它在一定程度上能減少人的主觀錯誤，使評估更加科學合理。本論文采用模糊綜合評估方法對大型商場火災風險進行評估，具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。
（4）在商場火災風險評估研究的基礎(chǔ)上，對火災公眾責任保險的費率厘定作了進一步的探討，并制定了科學合理的定價模型，對當前火災公眾責任保險的全面推行，具有相當重要的現(xiàn)實意義。
（5）本文通過對武漢某商場的火災風險評估，演示了所提出的方法的可行性，它為保險公司和商場的風險控制工作提供技術(shù)支撐。

關(guān)鍵詞：火災公共責任保險 火災風險評估 費率 風險控制
 

Research on Fire Risk Assessment Method of the Large-scale Markets about the Public Liability Insurance of Fire

ABSTRACT
Recently, the bad safety management causes the big fire accident continuously in the large-scale markets. From the fire accident statistics data, these big fire accidents are related to the owners or the responsibility factors. However, because the limited insured items and low lines of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, government was undertaking the huge pressure at the following-up treatment of disaster. This kind of condition does not only favor the social stability, but also the sustainable development of economic society. Therefore, when we prevent the disaster and enhance the safety control positively we should display the function of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire fully, speeds up the establishment of compensation mechanism for the third party property damage and the person injures caused by another source of responsibility, that appears extremely urgent and essential.
Insurance companies should upgrade their service standards and give full play as the role of insurance economic levers. It should practice a floating rate according to the various subject matter of insurance, reflecting the purpose of “reward the good and fine the bad”. As the insurance sector, they can have a comprehensive study of the fire risk situation by conducting the fire risk assessment. They do research on how the fire risk will be changing with the changed of the conditions of the outside world, in order to provide a reliable theory for seeking the best safety investment. Its main task is to identify the fire risk factors which are existed in the system accurately, and to do some appropriate assessment about the impact level of the fire risk factors， and to quantify the situation of the fire risk of the eva luated-objects. Through above steps, they can lay out the foundations to measures and programmes. So, How to eva luate the fire risk conditions of shopping malls scientifically is not only good to conduct the fire public liability insurance stability, but to provide technical supports for underwriting. Therefore, it is the impressing problem to be addressed in the insurance industry. It also provides scientific suggestions for formulating a reasonable rate of fire of public liability insurance and telling out the advices of disaster prevention and loss Prevention.
This article is on the careful research about the problems we will meet during the comprehensive process when we carry out the Public liability Insurance of Fire. As follows are the main conclusions:
（1）On the basic of having a comprehensive understanding of the implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at home and abroad, discussing in detail that the importance and urgency of the enforcemented implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at the stage in our country. Discussing the research status, developing trend and the application in the insurance aboat the fire risk assessment methods at home and abroad.
（2）the paper has carried on the analysis to the hazard of market fires, the discussion about the factor system, the eva luation system, single class eva luation, eva luation calculation model and multilevel eva luation mode. And established in this foundation we have established the three level standards system which is about the fuzzy appraisal of large-scale market’ s fire risks which consists of the building’s own security, the fire fighting rescue strength, the scattered system, the personnel characteristic as well as the fire protection management. Subsystem factors were ascertained. Using experts’ research method, the author made sure the weight of the fire eva luation system.
（3）Fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method can make quantitative assessment on the multi-factors’ system . The quantitative problems and the People's subjective judgements on this issue can be expressed in the way of amout, and to do fuzzy processing. To a certain extent, it can reduce the subjective mistakes and make the eva luation more scientifically. This paper used fuzzy comprehensive method to eva luate the fire risk of Large-scale Markets, has a theoretical and practical significance.
（4）on the basis of assessment research of market fires risks, the author make the further discussion about the tariff of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, and formulate the scientific and reasonable model of fixing price, which have the practical significant influence on the comprehensive carrying out the Public Liability Insurance of Fire.
（5）through the assessment of fires risks to some market in Wuhan, the author demonstrates the feasibility of the method which proposed. It provides the effective technical support for the insurance company and the control of risk to Large-scale Markets.

Key Words: the Public Liability Insurance of Fire  fire risk assessment  the tariff   the control of risk
 

目  錄

第一章 緒 論 1
§ 1.1 課題的研究背景 1
1.1.1 我國大型商場火災形勢嚴峻 1
1.1.2大型商場火災特點 2
1.1.3 火災公眾責任保險的強制推行必要性 3
§1.2 國內(nèi)外火災風險評估方法在保險業(yè)中的應用現(xiàn)狀 4
§1.3 本文研究內(nèi)容和意義 5
1.3.1 研究內(nèi)容 5
1.3.2 研究意義 6
第二章 常見建筑火災風險評估方法 7
§ 2.1 火災風險的相關(guān)概念 7
§ 2.2火災風險的度量和容忍度 9
2.2.1 火災風險的度量 9
2.2.2 風險容忍度 10
§2.3 火災風險評估方法 10
2.3.1 定性分析方法 10
2.3.2 半定量分析方法 11
2.3.3 定量分析方法 14
第三章 大型商場火災公眾責任保險風險評估指標體系建立 19
§3.1 大型商場火災發(fā)展特性 19
3.1.1 火災起始階段 19
3.1.2 火災全面發(fā)展階段 20
3.1.3 火災熄滅階段 20
§3.2 大型商場火災主要原因 21
3.2.1電氣火災 21
3.2.2裝飾裝修違反消防規(guī)定 21
3.2.3消防設(shè)施缺陷 21
3.2.4消防意識淡薄 22
3.2.5公眾普遍缺乏消防常識 22
§3.3 大型商場內(nèi)火災蔓延途徑 22
3.3.1水平方向蔓延 22
3.3.2火災通過豎井蔓延 23
3.3.3火災通過空調(diào)系統(tǒng)管道蔓延 23
3.3.4火災由窗口向上層蔓延 23
§3.4 大型商場火災公眾責任保險風險評估指標體系的建立 23
3.4.1評估指標建立和選取的原則 23
3.4.2大型商場火災風險評估的一級因素分析 24
3.4.3大型商場火災風險評估的二級因素分析 25
3.4.4風險評估指標體系的建立 25
3.4.5風險評估指標的量化 26
第四章 大型商場火災公眾責任保險風險評估模型研究 32
§4.1模糊評估理論基礎(chǔ) 32
4.1.1 因素集 32
4.1.2 評估集 33
4.1.3 一級模糊綜合評判 33
4.1.4 單因素綜合評估的計算模型 34
4.1.5 計算模型的適用范圍 35
4.1.6 多層次模糊綜合評估 35
§4.2大型商場火災公眾責任保險風險評估指標權(quán)重的確定 36
4.2.1權(quán)重確定方法的對比分析 36
4.2.2專家咨詢法 36
4.2.3評估指標權(quán)重確定 37
第五章 火災公眾責任保險的定價模型探討與研究 42
§5.1國內(nèi)外責任保險發(fā)展概述 42
5.1.1國外責任保險發(fā)展概況 42
5.1.2我國責任保險發(fā)展概況 42
§5.2 責任保險的概念與特點 43
5.2.1責任保險的概念 43
5.2.2責任保險的特點 43
§5.3火災公眾責任保險基本內(nèi)容 44
5.3.1保險對象 45
5.3.2保險責任 46
5.3.3責任除外 46
5.3.4責任限額 46
§5.4火災公眾責任保險費率厘定 46
5.4.1保險費率的含義與構(gòu)成 46
5.4.2保險費率厘定的基本原則 47
5.4.3火災公眾責任保險費率厘定 47
§5.5小結(jié) 48
第六章 研究模型實例應用 49
§6.1武漢某大型商場概況 49
§6.2火災風險評估指標描述 49
6.2.1建筑自身防火系統(tǒng) 49
6.2.2滅火系統(tǒng) 50
6.2.3安全疏散系統(tǒng) 51
6.2.4人員疏散系統(tǒng) 51
6.2.5防火管理系統(tǒng) 52
§6.3武漢某大型商場火災風險評估 52
§6.4火災公眾責任保險費率厘定 56
§6.5小結(jié) 57
第七章 結(jié)束語 59
致    謝 61
參考文獻 62