摘 要
深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物主要包括潛艇、深潛器和深海空間站等海洋結(jié)構(gòu)物。深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物在復(fù)雜的深海環(huán)境中運行，不可避免地會產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險，比如碰撞與擱淺、火災(zāi)與爆炸等。對深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物系統(tǒng)進行風(fēng)險評估關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究，建立一套適用于深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物風(fēng)險評估的分析方法，對提高深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物的安全性具有極其重要的意義。
本文在對風(fēng)險評估關(guān)鍵技術(shù)理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上，對深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物進行了風(fēng)險識別；結(jié)合深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物各組成部分的特點與功能，對深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物進行了失效模式及影響分析，有針對性地對其薄弱環(huán)節(jié)提出可能的檢測手段和預(yù)防改進措施；建立了基于誤差分析的三維碰撞概率計算模型，研究了深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物碰撞概率的計算方法，編制相應(yīng)的計算程序，研究了碰撞概率與各個交會參量之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系；結(jié)合水面船舶碰撞危險度，引入深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物碰撞危險度的相關(guān)概念，基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進行碰撞危險度計算，研究了深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物避碰決策過程。
本文主要工作如下：
1.在對風(fēng)險識別的基本理論和主要方法研究的基礎(chǔ)上，首先進行深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物風(fēng)險識別，找出可能的風(fēng)險事故，并對其進行排序，如碰撞、擱淺、火災(zāi)、爆炸、疲勞、腐蝕和超深等。然后選取兩種典型的事故進行研究，并采用專家調(diào)查法進行碰撞與擱淺事故的風(fēng)險分析，同時采用故障樹法進行火災(zāi)與爆炸事故的風(fēng)險分析。
2.結(jié)合深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物各組成部分的特點與功能，通過對深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物進行失效模式及影響分析，研究了深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物所有可能的失效模式、原因及影響，進而有針對性地對其薄弱環(huán)節(jié)提出可能的檢測手段和預(yù)防改進措施。
3.首先分析了深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物碰撞事故發(fā)生的特點，基于二項式分布預(yù)測了某典型海域深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物的年碰撞頻率。然后，在對基于誤差分析的三維碰撞概率原理研究的基礎(chǔ)上，研究了深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物碰撞概率算法，編制碰撞概率計算程序，通過多個虛擬碰撞目標算例，對碰撞概率方法做了進一步驗證。最后，研究碰撞概率的各影響因素，揭示了碰撞概率與各個交會參量之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系。
4.首先在研究水面船舶碰撞風(fēng)險度的基礎(chǔ)上，引入深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物碰撞危險度的相關(guān)概念。然后以最具代表性的判定依據(jù)DCPA和TCPA為網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸入，采用Clementine軟件進行基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的碰撞危險度計算。最后對深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物的避碰決策過程中人—深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物—環(huán)境三因素進行綜合研究。
關(guān)鍵詞 深海耐壓結(jié)構(gòu)物 風(fēng)險評估 失效模式及影響分析 碰撞概率 BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)



ABSTRCAT
Deep-sea pressure structures are mainly including submarines, deep diving device , deep sea space station and other devices.Deep-sea pressure structure working in the complex deep-sea environments, inevitably cause risk, such as collision and grounding, fire and explosion etc. Study on the key technology of deep-sea pressure structure risk assessment and the establishment of a suitable risk analysis methods have very important significance to improve the security of deep-sea pressure structure.
In this paper, on the basis of theoretical research on key technology of risk assessment, deep-sea pressure structure risks are identified.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures. Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related concepts for deep-sea pressure structure is introduced. The collision risk index is calculated based on the BP neural network while deep-sea pressure structure collision avoidance decision-making process is studied.
The main works of this article are listed as follows:
1.On the basic of study on theory and main method of risk identification, firstly deep-sea pressure structure risk is identificated to find out the possible risk source, such as collision, grounding, fire, explosion, fatigue, corrosion and exceed deep, etc. Secondly, two typical accidents are studied and expert questionnaire is adopted in collision and grounding risk identification while the fault tree method for fire and explosion risk identification.
2.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on. The deep-sea pressure structure all possible failure modes, cause and effectin is studied in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures.
3.Fitstly,the accide characteristics of deep-sea pressure structure collision and grounding is studied；based on the binomial distributio theory，the typical waters of annual probability for collision accident is predicted.Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Through multiple virtual collision target example, collision probability method was further verified. Finally, by studying each affecting factor of probability, the collision probability and various parameters of the inner relationship between the rendezvous is revealed.
4.Firstly,combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related conce..