泡沫的存在性及其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響

全文24頁(yè) 約10000字 論述翔實(shí)

摘要 本文探討了資產(chǎn)定價(jià)泡沫在世代交迭模型中存在的可能性，證明了資產(chǎn)定價(jià)泡沫只可能在經(jīng)濟(jì)是動(dòng)態(tài)無(wú)效的情況下才能夠存在，并且給出了隨機(jī)情況下泡沫存在的條件.從理論上分析了資產(chǎn)定價(jià)泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，結(jié)果表明在實(shí)質(zhì)資本收益率確定的情況下，適當(dāng)?shù)?資產(chǎn)定價(jià)泡沫對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有益，會(huì)增加人均消費(fèi)，加快我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)向動(dòng)態(tài)有效轉(zhuǎn)化，使資源配置達(dá)到Pareto最優(yōu)；在實(shí)質(zhì)資本受益率隨機(jī)的情況下，資產(chǎn)定價(jià)泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是不確定的，其效果依賴于投資者對(duì)未來(lái)投資實(shí)質(zhì)資本收益率的預(yù)期.

關(guān)鍵詞 泡沫，市場(chǎng)基本值，世代交迭模型，動(dòng)態(tài)無(wú)效

部分參考文獻(xiàn)

[10] Shiller, R. :”Do Stock Prices Move too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review ,71(1982),421-436.
[11] Shiller, R. :”Stock Market Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle,” mimeo,1982.
[12] Tirole, J. :”O(jiān)n the Possibility of Speculation Under Rational Expectations ,” Econometrica , 50(1982),1163-1181.
[13] Tirole , J.,” Asset Bubbles and Over Lapping Generations,” Econometrica , 53(1985), 1499-1582.
[14] Wallace, N. :”The Over Lapping Generations Model of Fiat Money,” in Models of Monetary Economics, ed. by J. Kareken and N. Wallace. Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,1980.
[15] Weil, P.,” Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Over Lapping Generations Economy,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(1987), 1-22.