摘  要

　　　紡織品行業(yè)是我國(guó)僅次于電子通信行業(yè)的第二大出口行業(yè)，出口依存度高達(dá)51%,而且其不斷擴(kuò)大的國(guó)際市場(chǎng)份額又是建立在勞動(dòng)力成本和價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)之上的。人民幣升值將使我國(guó)紡織品出口受到巨大的影響，大大削弱紡織產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)紡織企業(yè)的惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng),因此，人民幣升值必將對(duì)嚴(yán)重依賴國(guó)際市場(chǎng)出口的我國(guó)紡織行業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大的壓力。我國(guó)紡織品行業(yè)應(yīng)該提高生產(chǎn)科技水平，提升產(chǎn)品的附加值，調(diào)整產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)，樹立品牌觀念，促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)，增強(qiáng)企業(yè)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

　　　本文主要對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口現(xiàn)狀、特點(diǎn)、問題和人民幣升值的主要原因進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要分析,在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上，通過建立包括我國(guó)紡織品出口總額、人民幣兌美元的實(shí)際有效匯率、我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、主要貿(mào)易伙伴GDP總和在內(nèi)的多元回歸模型，用實(shí)證分析的方法分析了人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口存在影響，并針對(duì)人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口的不利影響提出相關(guān)的解決方案和建議，從而使我國(guó)紡織行業(yè)在人民幣升值的環(huán)境下能夠得到更快、更穩(wěn)健的發(fā)展。

關(guān)鍵詞: 人民幣升值； 紡織品出口；紡織業(yè)；競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力

  

ABSTRACT

     

Textile industry whose export dependence is up to 51% is a traditional industry in China’s exports, which ranks only second to the E-communication industry. And its continuously expanding international market share is based on the labor cost advantage and competitive price.  So, the RMB’s appreciation will greatly diminish China textile and clothing products’ competitiveness in the international market，simultaneously aggravate the vicious competition within the domestic textile industries. To handle the problem, we textile industry should promote the producing condition and the technical level, improve the additional value of the products, adjust the product mix and set up the brand-oriented sense to upgrade the industrial structure and enhance the core competence of enterprise in international market.

This paper gives a brief analysis to the present situations, characteristics and exiting problems of the textile industry. On the basis of theory, it designs a multivariate model including the total exports of our textile industry, the real effective exchange rate between RMB and American dollar, our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the total GDP wealth of our main trade partners.  In addition, the paper takes instances to explain the two-side influences of the RMB’s appreciation on the export of textile products. Besides, some possible measures and advices are presented to the bad side, by which China would keep its textile industry have a faster and more stable development under the effect of RMB’s appreciation. 

Keywords：appreciation of RMB； textile exports；  textile industry；  competitive power

目    錄

引言……………………………………………….. …………………………………..1

1 我國(guó)紡織品出口的現(xiàn)狀和問題……………………………………...2

1.1 我國(guó)紡織品出口現(xiàn)狀…………………………………………………....2

1.2 我國(guó)紡織品出口的特點(diǎn) ……………………………………………....2

1.3 我國(guó)紡織品出口企業(yè)面臨的問題…………………………….….…4

2 人民幣升值的原因分析……………………………………………...….4

2.1 外部因素………………………………….. ……………………………........5

2.2 內(nèi)部因素…………………………………………………………………..…..5

3 人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口的影響分析…………….….....6

3.1 人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口的不利影響…………………....6

3.1.1 價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)削弱…………………………………………………………...6

3.1.2 企業(yè)出口效益降低………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.3 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將更趨激烈……………………………………………………..…7

3.1.4 出口匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.5 加大企業(yè)就業(yè)壓力………………………………………………........8

3.1.6 導(dǎo)致紡織生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和外商投資轉(zhuǎn)移……………………8

3.2 人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口的有利影響………………..…8

3.2.1 減輕進(jìn)口能源和原料的成本負(fù)擔(dān)…………………………..…..8

3.2.2 有利于我國(guó)紡織行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整………………………………8

3.2.3 減少貿(mào)易摩擦和改善貿(mào)易環(huán)境……………………………….....9

3.2.4 增加對(duì)外投資……………………………………………………….....9

4 人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品出口影響的實(shí)證分析………….9

5 我國(guó)紡織業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)人民幣升值的對(duì)策………………….………...13

5.1 加速轉(zhuǎn)型調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)………………………………………….…..13

5.2 實(shí)施“走出去”戰(zhàn)略，規(guī)避壁壘………………………………..13

5.3 加強(qiáng)行業(yè)自律組織建設(shè),減少惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的出現(xiàn)…………....14

5.4 利用金融工具規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)……………………………..………..14

結(jié)束語(yǔ)……………………………………………………………………………..16

參考文獻(xiàn)…………………………………………………………………..……..17

致謝………………………………………………………………………………...18