瑞銀集團研報：聚焦中國[外文翻譯].rar
瑞銀集團研報：聚焦中國[外文翻譯],瑞銀集團研報：聚焦中國——中國對“熱錢”的擔憂程度應(yīng)該有多大？[外文翻譯]ubs investment research: china focus——how much should china be worried about “hot money”？內(nèi)包含中文翻譯和英文原文，內(nèi)容完善，建議下載閱覽。①中文頁數(shù)9中文字...
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內(nèi)容介紹
原文檔由會員 鄭軍 發(fā)布
瑞銀集團研報：聚焦中國——中國對“熱錢”的擔憂程度應(yīng)該有多大？[外文翻譯]
UBS Investment Research: China Focus
——How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”？
內(nèi)包含中文翻譯和英文原文，內(nèi)容完善，建議下載閱覽。
①中文頁數(shù)9
中文字數(shù)4914
②英文頁數(shù)11
英文字數(shù)2601
③ 摘要
在最近幾個月里，中國的外匯儲備繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)定的速度增加。最新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，“熱錢”流入可能加速。這和其他經(jīng)濟體最近動蕩的貨幣市場一起，導(dǎo)致“熱錢”在中國引起爆炸性的討論和擔心。大量關(guān)于“熱錢”流入規(guī)模的估計已經(jīng)公開，這敲響了大量資金可能外流的警鐘。只是中國對“熱錢”流入和流出的擔心到底應(yīng)該有多大？我們的觀點如下：
最近幾個月里，“熱錢”流入規(guī)模迅速崛起，但其總體規(guī)模（3000-4000億美元）與一些人的看法并非一樣。雖然刺激各種外匯流入中國的因素增加，但這些外匯不太可能以預(yù)先確定的人民幣/美元匯率大規(guī)模流出，也似乎與股票市場無關(guān)?？傮w外匯規(guī)模積累的速度已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)擾亂貨幣政策，破壞宏觀政策的公正性，但由于中期的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題，其影響可能會更加間接。因為中國想要繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定的匯率和獨立的貨幣政策，因此，嚴格的資本管制勢在必行，管制措施必將出臺。
China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money” inflows and outflows? Here is what we think：
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.
④關(guān)鍵字 熱錢/Hot Money
UBS Investment Research: China Focus
——How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”？
內(nèi)包含中文翻譯和英文原文，內(nèi)容完善，建議下載閱覽。
①中文頁數(shù)9
中文字數(shù)4914
②英文頁數(shù)11
英文字數(shù)2601
③ 摘要
在最近幾個月里，中國的外匯儲備繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)定的速度增加。最新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，“熱錢”流入可能加速。這和其他經(jīng)濟體最近動蕩的貨幣市場一起，導(dǎo)致“熱錢”在中國引起爆炸性的討論和擔心。大量關(guān)于“熱錢”流入規(guī)模的估計已經(jīng)公開，這敲響了大量資金可能外流的警鐘。只是中國對“熱錢”流入和流出的擔心到底應(yīng)該有多大？我們的觀點如下：
最近幾個月里，“熱錢”流入規(guī)模迅速崛起，但其總體規(guī)模（3000-4000億美元）與一些人的看法并非一樣。雖然刺激各種外匯流入中國的因素增加，但這些外匯不太可能以預(yù)先確定的人民幣/美元匯率大規(guī)模流出，也似乎與股票市場無關(guān)?？傮w外匯規(guī)模積累的速度已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)擾亂貨幣政策，破壞宏觀政策的公正性，但由于中期的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題，其影響可能會更加間接。因為中國想要繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定的匯率和獨立的貨幣政策，因此，嚴格的資本管制勢在必行，管制措施必將出臺。
China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money” inflows and outflows? Here is what we think：
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.
④關(guān)鍵字 熱錢/Hot Money
