社會融資總量作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的可行性分析

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【摘要】近年來，隨著金融市場的迅速發(fā)展，我國金融總量擴(kuò)張速度很快，社會融資結(jié)構(gòu)也不斷多元化，融資渠道越來越廣，單純以貨幣供應(yīng)量和新增人民幣貸款等作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的情況已不能較為全面反映實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的融資規(guī)模，不能有效調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融的關(guān)系。本文引入了社會融資總量這一指標(biāo)，首先分析指標(biāo)的內(nèi)涵和優(yōu)劣勢。然后文章選取了2002年到2013年間社會融資總量、貸款規(guī)模、M2、新增貸款等數(shù)據(jù)作為貨幣政策中間指標(biāo)，選取CPI、GDP代表貨幣政策最終目標(biāo)，采用相關(guān)分析、回歸分析、平穩(wěn)性檢驗和和格蘭杰因果檢驗等方法，判斷社會融資總作為貨幣政策的中間目標(biāo)是否存在可行性，并且與其他中間指標(biāo)相比較。目前，社會融資總量作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)還沒有明顯優(yōu)勢，在統(tǒng)計制度、調(diào)控手段等方面還存在不足，對此本文提出了一些改進(jìn)的政策建議。


【關(guān)鍵詞】社會融資總量；貨幣政策；中間目標(biāo)；可行性分析

Feasibility Analysis of the total social financing as an intermediate target of monetary policy
【Abstract】In recent years，with the rapid development of financial markets, the financial amount of China has been expanding fast；social financing structure has also continued to diversify；financing channels has became more and more widely．Simply to money supply and new loans，etc, as currency intermediate target of policy situation can’t more fully reflect the scale of financing the real economy，and can’t effectively regulate the relationship between the economy and finance．This paper introduces the indicator “the Total Social Financing ".First analyze the meaning of the total social financing and its advantages and disadvantages. Then select articles from 2002 to 2013 between the total social financing, loan size, M2, new loans and other data as intermediate targets of monetary policy, select CPI, GDP as the ultimate goal of monetary policy, using correlation analysis, regression analysis, stationary test and Granger causality test method to determine the total social financing as an intermediate target of monetary policy if there are feasible,and compared with other intermediate indicators. Currently, the total social financing as an intermediate target of monetary policy has no significant advantage in terms of the statistical system. There are deficiencies in the statistical system and control means and so on,this paper presents some policy recommendations for improvement.
【Keywords】Total social financing;Monetary Policy ;Intermediate target; Feasibility Analysis

目錄
第一章 相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ) 2
1.1社會融資總量的內(nèi)涵及意義 2
1.1.1社會融資總量的內(nèi)涵 2
1.1.2社會融資總量提出的意義 3
1.2貨幣政策中間目標(biāo) 3
1.2.1貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的含義及重要性 3
1.2.2貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 4
1.2.3貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)內(nèi)容 4
第二章 社會融資總量作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的優(yōu)劣分析 6
2.1社會融資總量作為貨幣政策的優(yōu)越性 6
2.1.1社會融資總量更加全面反映出實際融資支持情況 6
2.1.2社會融資總量符合“三性”標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 7
2.1.3有助于央行轉(zhuǎn)變貨幣政策調(diào)控的方式 8
2.1.4有助于推動貨幣當(dāng)局進(jìn)行宏觀審慎管理 8
2.1.5有利于進(jìn)一步完善數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計制度 9
2.2社會融資總量作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)存在的不足 9
2.2.1在全面性方面存在一些不足 9
2.2.2金融統(tǒng)計制度存在缺陷 10
2.2.3缺乏足夠的調(diào)控社會融資總量的操作方式和工具 10
第三章 社會融資總量作為貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的實證分析 11
3.1指標(biāo)選取與數(shù)據(jù)來源 11
3.2相關(guān)性分析 12
3.2.1相關(guān)性分析結(jié)果 12
3.2.2相關(guān)性分析結(jié)論 14
3.3回歸分析 15
3.3.1社會融資總量與GDP的回歸分析 15
3.3.2社會融資總量與CPI的回歸分析 18
3.3.3回歸分析的結(jié)論 19
3.4平穩(wěn)性檢驗 19
3.5社會融資總量、新增貸款規(guī)模和貨幣政策最終目標(biāo)的Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗 20
第四章社會融資總量作為貨幣政策調(diào)控中介目標(biāo)的政策建議 21
4.1短期內(nèi)推動社會融資總量的措施 21
4.2長期內(nèi)推動社會融資總量的措施 22
參考文獻(xiàn)： 24