城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法研究

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摘要 伴隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速的發(fā)展，大中型城市人口逐漸增多，交通擁堵現(xiàn)象也日漸明顯。為了解決交通擁堵問(wèn)題，我國(guó)開始了興建地鐵的熱潮，但是在人們享受地鐵出行便捷的同時(shí)，也愈發(fā)地關(guān)心地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)的安全。因此，學(xué)習(xí)西方國(guó)家城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)的成功案例，尋求適用于我國(guó)城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)的方法。對(duì)城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)進(jìn)行有效地評(píng)價(jià)，預(yù)測(cè)城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)的安全性，是減少甚至杜絕城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故和故障的重要手段。
本文首先統(tǒng)計(jì)分析下近幾年國(guó)內(nèi)外發(fā)生地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故和故障的致因，根據(jù)分析結(jié)果確定導(dǎo)致地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故的主要原因。根據(jù)事故致因理論，把影響地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分為人、設(shè)施設(shè)備、管理、環(huán)境四個(gè)方面。其次分析了解下目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)于城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)使用的一些方法，總結(jié)它們的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，依據(jù)我國(guó)城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)的實(shí)際情況，選擇定性、定量相結(jié)合的層次分析法為地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法。再次依照選擇的層次分析法，建立地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全的評(píng)價(jià)模型。
在該模型實(shí)例運(yùn)用中，首先統(tǒng)計(jì)分析該城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故，根據(jù)事故原因所占類別的比例確定判斷矩陣中各個(gè)因素之間相對(duì)重要程度。然后對(duì)影響地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全的各個(gè)因素進(jìn)行排序，對(duì)地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。為改善該地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全性提供科學(xué)并可靠的依據(jù)，驗(yàn)證評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系及評(píng)價(jià)模型的可行性。
關(guān)鍵詞：運(yùn)營(yíng)安全 評(píng)價(jià)方法 層次分析法 地鐵車站


Study on Safety eva luation Method of Urban Metro Operation
Abstract With the fast development of the economy of our country,large and medium-sized city population gradually increased,the phenomenon of traffic jam is increasingly obvious.In order to solve the problem of traffic congestion,China began the upsurge of building subway,however,the people enjoy the convenient subway at the same time and are also increasingly concerned about the safety of subway operation.Therefore, by learning the successful cases of the west urban subway operation safety eva luation,to seek the subway operation safety eva luation methods that are suitable for China's urban.eva luating the urban subway operation effectively and predicting the safety of urban subway operation are the important ways to reduce or even eliminate the city subway accident and fault.
Firstly, the accidents and faults cause of the metro operation are counted and analyzed at home and abroad in recent years,then according to the results of the analysis,to determine the major causes of accidents in subway operation.According to the accident causing theory, the effects of risk factors in subway operation are divided into four aspects of people,facilities,management,environment.Secondly, under the understanding of some methods were used at home and abroad for city subway operation safety eva luation,it summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of them,according to the actual situation of our country city subway,to choose the method of AHP that combinate the qualitative and quantitative for the subway operation safety eva luation.Finally,according to the choice of AHP, to establish the model of the Subway operation safety eva luation.
In the model application,firstly the urban subway operation accidents are counted and analyzed,
according to the proportion of the cause of the accident of the category to determine the relative important degree among the different factors in the judgment matrix.Then sorting of various factors affecting the safety of subway operation, to eva luate the safety of subway operation.To provide a scientific and reliable basis for improving the safety of subway operation, verifying the eva luation index system and the feasibility of eva luation model.
Key words operation safety eva luation method AHP the subway station

目 錄
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………1
1.1研究的背景………………………………………………………………1
1.2研究的目的和意義………………………………………………………2
1.2.1研究的目的……………………………………………………………2
1.2.2研究的意義……………………………………………………………2
1.3國(guó)內(nèi)外城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法的研究現(xiàn)狀………………………3
1.3.1國(guó)外的研究現(xiàn)狀………………………………………………………3
1.3.2國(guó)內(nèi)的研究現(xiàn)狀………………………………………………………4
1.4本文的主要工作…………………………………………………………5
1.4.1論文的主要內(nèi)容………………………………………………………5
1.4.2論文的技術(shù)路線………………………………………………………7
第二章 城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故統(tǒng)計(jì)及事故致因機(jī)理分析………………8
2.1地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故統(tǒng)計(jì)分析…………………………………………………8
2.2地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故致因分析…………………………………………………10
2.2.1人的因素………………………………………………………………10
2.2.2環(huán)境因素………………………………………………………………11
2.2.3管理因素………………………………………………………………12
2.2.4設(shè)施設(shè)備因素…………………………………………………………12
第三章 城市地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法的研究……………………………15
3.1常用的安全評(píng)價(jià)方法……………………………………………………15
3.2安全評(píng)價(jià)..