基于現(xiàn)金流量法的企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估研究

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摘 要
中國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的深入發(fā)展和產(chǎn)權(quán)制度的進(jìn)一步完善，促使產(chǎn)權(quán)已不再是單純意義上的產(chǎn)權(quán)，企業(yè)之間的并購(gòu)、重組、股權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)讓、融資等交易活動(dòng)促使產(chǎn)權(quán)成為一種商品在市場(chǎng)中自由交換和買賣，進(jìn)而企業(yè)也會(huì)變成商品在市場(chǎng)中交換買賣。由于企業(yè)之間并購(gòu)、投資等財(cái)務(wù)活動(dòng)的發(fā)生日益頻繁，而企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估是進(jìn)行投資決策、收購(gòu)兼并、信貸管理和企業(yè)價(jià)值管理的重要工具，也在投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范和企業(yè)管理效率的提升等方面發(fā)揮著重要的作用。
企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估不僅僅是企業(yè)內(nèi)部管理者進(jìn)行有效管理的管理工具，還是企業(yè)外部投資者進(jìn)行企業(yè)投資分析的重要工具。投資決策過程中進(jìn)行有效合理地價(jià)值評(píng)估非常重要，選擇適當(dāng)?shù)脑u(píng)估方法是準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估企業(yè)價(jià)值的前提。本文首先介紹了現(xiàn)金流量法與企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的一些理論和概念，第二部分對(duì)三種企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的方法進(jìn)行概述和比較分析，重點(diǎn)指出收益法中的現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的優(yōu)勢(shì)；第三部分是對(duì)現(xiàn)金流量法的模型的建立以及該方法的適用性分析；最后，以哈藥為例，運(yùn)用現(xiàn)金流量法對(duì)其進(jìn)行企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估。

關(guān)鍵詞：企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估 現(xiàn)金流量法 研究


ABSTRACT
Further development of Chinese of market economy and the further improvement of the property rights system, the property is no longer the simple sense of property rights.Transactions of mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, equity transfer,financing the property becomes a free exchange of goods in the market andtrade, then enterprises will become a commodity exchange trading in the market. Due to the occurrence of M & A, investment and other financial activities have become increasingly frequent, the enterprise value assessment is an important tool for investment, mergers and acquisitions, credit management andenterprise value management, plays an important role in risk prevention andpromotion of management efficiency of enterprises.
Enterprise value assessment is not only the effective management tool for the internal managers，but also an important tool of enterprise investment analysis for outside investors.It's very important to go on an effective and reasonable value assessment in the investment decision-making process.Select the appropriate assessment methods is the premise to eva luate the enterprise value.This paper firstly introduces some theories and concepts related to the enterprise value assessment;The second part,assessment method of three kinds ofenterprise value were introduced and compared,then pointing out the DCF is better than other methods for enterprise value assessment;The third part is a detailed description of the method of cash flow, including the establishment of the model;At the end of the article we use cash flow method to assess the business value of harbin pharmaceutical group .

Key words: Enterprise's value assessment; DCF ; Research

目 錄
引 言 1
1現(xiàn)金流量法與企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估概述 1
1.1 現(xiàn)金流量法概述 1
1.2 企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估概述 2
1.2.1企業(yè)價(jià)值概述 2
1.2.2企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估涵義 4
2企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估方法的比較分析 5
2.1 成本法 5
2.2 市場(chǎng)法 6
2.3 收益法 7
3 基于現(xiàn)金流量法的企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估模型構(gòu)建 8
3.1基本原理 8
3.2企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)模型（FCFF模型） 8
3.3 模型評(píng)估步驟 8
4基于自由現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)模型的案例分析 10
4.1公司概況 10
4.2行業(yè)分析 11
4.3 自由現(xiàn)金流量的可行性分析 12
4.4 企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估 13
4.4.1未來現(xiàn)金流量的估測(cè) 14
4.4.2確定企業(yè)的資本成本率 19
4.4.3企業(yè)價(jià)值的計(jì)算 20
4.5研究結(jié)論 21
結(jié)束語(yǔ) 21
參考文獻(xiàn)： 22
致 謝 24