投資回收期的影響因素分析（本科畢業(yè)論文設(shè)計(jì)）

摘 要

投資回收期是進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目可行性研究和項(xiàng)目投資效益評(píng)價(jià)的常用方法，反映了以項(xiàng)目本身的財(cái)務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)能力償還總投資的年限，并能通過投資回收期的長(zhǎng)短部分反映投資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與盈利能力。因此對(duì)投資回收期的影響因素分析是對(duì)投資回收期進(jìn)行科學(xué)準(zhǔn)確的計(jì)算的前提。投資回收期有四種基本方法:靜態(tài)投資回收期法,動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期法，靜態(tài)追加投資回收期法和動(dòng)態(tài)追加投資回收期法。但這些基本方法在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中都存在一定的局限性，靜態(tài)投資回收期沒有考慮資金的時(shí)間價(jià)值，動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期彌補(bǔ)了這一缺陷，但對(duì)市場(chǎng)上其它因素變化時(shí)可能得不到正確的數(shù)值。追加回收期主要是比較不同方案的優(yōu)劣，在不同因素的影響下可能得到不同的結(jié)果。那這些因素有哪些？它們的變化如何影響投資回收期？除了上述四種算法，在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目投資時(shí)還可以怎樣計(jì)算？
基于以上目的探討投資回收期的影響因素。通過對(duì)前人的方法進(jìn)行歸類總結(jié)，形成較為系統(tǒng)的，全面的計(jì)算體系，從而從根本上分析這些方法重點(diǎn)考慮的因素是哪些，基于什么因素得出的修正方案，并對(duì)這些因素進(jìn)行分類，以便更靈活地應(yīng)用這些方法?；谶@些影響因素下投資回收期的計(jì)算模型修正或變化趨勢(shì)成為主要問題?？偨Y(jié)出如下結(jié)論：這些因素包括貨幣的時(shí)間價(jià)值，基準(zhǔn)收益率，投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)酬，通貨膨脹，所得稅率，投資回收年限，固定資產(chǎn)折舊等。在進(jìn)行跨國(guó)投資時(shí)還需考慮匯率的變動(dòng)，以及東道主國(guó)家的一些優(yōu)惠或者歧視政策。


關(guān)鍵字：投資回收期，影響因素，基準(zhǔn)收益率，現(xiàn)金流量

ABSTRACT

Payback period is the feasibility of the project and investment eva luation of the effectiveness of commonly used methods, it reflects the project's own financial means to repay a total investment of life, and through the investment recovery period is the length of the investment projects reflect the risks and profits Capacity. Therefore the payback period analysis of the factors affecting the investment recovery period is scientifically accurate calculation of the premise. There are four basic investment recovery period: payback period of static and dynamic investment recovery period, additional investment recovery period of static and dynamic of additional investment payback period. However, these basic methods in practical application there are certain limitations, static investment recovery period is not considered the time value of money, dynamic investment recovery period is made up for this deficiency, among other factors, the market changes may not be correct Numerical. Supplementary payback period is relatively the pros and cons of different options, under the influence of different factors may have different results. What are the factors that these? Changes in how they affect the investment payback period ? In addition to the above four algorithms, investment in the project also can calculate how ?
Based on the above purpose of the impact of investment recovery period, based on these factors under the investment recovery period of model changes or amendments to the trend as a major problem, summed up as follows: These factors include the time value of money, the benchmark yield, investment risk reward Inflation, income tax rates, investment recovery period, fixed asset depreciation. Conducting cross-border investment needed to consider changes in exchange rates, and the host country of some preferential or discriminatory policies.


Key words: investment recovery period, the impact of factors, the benchmark yield, cash flow

目 錄

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
目 錄 III
1 概述 1
1.1 研究的目的及意義 1
1.2 研究現(xiàn)狀 1
1.3 研究的主要內(nèi)容 2
2 投資回收期的基本方法 4
2.1 靜態(tài)投資回收期 4
2.1.1 靜態(tài)投資回收期模型1 4
2.1.2 靜態(tài)投資回收期模型2 5
2.2 動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期 5
2.2.1 普通的動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期 5
2.2.2 一種動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期的簡(jiǎn)捷算法 6
2.3 追加投資回收期 6
2.3.1 靜態(tài)追加投資回收期 6
2.3.2 動(dòng)態(tài)追加投資回收期法 6
3 影響因素分析 8
3.1 貨幣的時(shí)間價(jià)值對(duì)投資回收期的影響 8
3.2 基準(zhǔn)收益率對(duì)投資回收期的影響 9
3.2.1投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)酬 9
3.2.2通貨膨脹 9
3.2.3資金成本和機(jī)會(huì)成本 10
3.3 現(xiàn)金流量 11
3.3.1所得稅 11
3.3.2 固定資產(chǎn)折舊 12
3.3.3 殘值 12
3.3.4回收年限 13
3.3.5全過程現(xiàn)金流量 14
3.4 綜合因素影響 15
3.5 一種特殊情況下的投資回收期計(jì)算方法 17
3.6 在跨國(guó)投資中一些特殊的影響因素 18
3.6.1匯率 18
3.6.2東道國(guó)政策 19
4 案例分析 20
4.1 方案簡(jiǎn)介 20
4.2 考慮幾個(gè)因素下的回收期的調(diào)整 22
4.2.1考慮資金的時(shí)間價(jià)值 22
4.2.2考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整和通貨膨脹的影響 23
4.2.3考慮投資回收年限 24
4.2.4綜合比較 24
5 結(jié)論 26
參考文獻(xiàn) 27