摘 要
區(qū)域物流系統(tǒng)是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展大系統(tǒng)的子系統(tǒng)之一。我國區(qū)域物流業(yè)的發(fā)展正值起步階段，許多地方紛紛把區(qū)域物流業(yè)列為支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)以大力發(fā)展。此時，深入分析和探討影響區(qū)域物流需求的主要區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素有著十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。江蘇是經(jīng)濟大省，經(jīng)濟總量及GDP增長率一直位于全國前列。尋找并確定影響江蘇省區(qū)域物流需求的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素，并且對這些區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素進行影響力分析具有十分重要的理論意義和實際價值。主要研究內(nèi)容如下：
(1)在介紹和分析區(qū)域物流需求指標(biāo)和區(qū)域物流需求影響因素指標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上，定性分析區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與區(qū)域物流的影響關(guān)系。
(2)運用ADF檢驗和協(xié)整檢驗綜合分析區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素與區(qū)域物流需求的協(xié)整關(guān)系。把存在協(xié)整關(guān)系的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素指標(biāo)與區(qū)域物流需求量進行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗，進一步確定因果關(guān)系類型。確定對江蘇省區(qū)域物流需求具有推動作用的六個區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素分別為地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP1)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP2)、全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資、社會消費品零售總額及人均收入。
(3)運用灰關(guān)聯(lián)熵分析法，把對江蘇省區(qū)域物流需求具有推動作用的六個區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素進行影響力分析，研究結(jié)果按影響力從大到小依次為全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資、社會消費品零售總額、人均收入、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP1)、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP2)。
(4)根據(jù)江蘇省實際情況，分別從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)模及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個角度分析全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資、社會消費品零售總額、人均收入、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值及第二產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值對江蘇省區(qū)域物流需求的影響作用，并且根據(jù)江蘇省區(qū)域物流需求的特征提出江蘇省發(fā)展區(qū)域物流產(chǎn)業(yè)的對策及建議。

關(guān)鍵詞 區(qū)域物流；物流需求；協(xié)整檢驗；區(qū)域經(jīng)濟；江蘇省
Abstract
Regional logistics system is a subsystem of regional economic development’s large-scale system. Regional logistics development in China is positive on its initial stage, many places have developed regional logistics industry as a pillar industry. At this point, deep analysis and discussion of major regional economic development factors for regional logistics demands has very important significance in practice. Jiangsu is a major economic province, with its economic output and GDP growth rate at the forefront of the country. It is of great theoretical and practical value to determine the regional economic development factors of regional logistics demands for Jiangsu Province, and to analyze these factors’ impact on regional logistics demands. The main contents are as follows:
(1) Based on regional logistics demand indicators and indicators of influencing factors of regional logistics demands, the paper analyzes relations between regional economic development and regional logistics demands qualitatively.
(2) With the methods of ADF Test and Cointegration Test, the paper researches cointegration relationships between regional economic development indicators and regional logistics demands comprehensively. Then it makes the Granger Causality Test of regional economic development indicators and regional logistics demand indicators with cointegration relationship, and defines the types of causal relationships. The regional economic development indicators that promote the regional logistics demands in Jiangsu Province respectively are: regional GDP(GDP), GDP of primary industry (GDP1), GDP of secondary industry(GDP2), total fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and income per capita.
(3) With the method of Gray Relational Entropy Analysis, the paper researches the impact of the six regional economic development indicators that promote the regional logistics demands in Jiangsu. The impact in decreasing order is: total fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, income per capita, GDP of primary industry(GDP1), GDP and GDP of secondary industry(GDP2).
(4) According to the actual situation of Jiangsu Province, the paper analyzes the impact of fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, income per capita, GDP of primary industry(GDP1), GDP and GDP of secondary industry(GDP2) on regional logistics demands in Jiangsu Province, from the point of regional economic development scale and industry structure respectively. In the end the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for Jiangsu Province’s regional logistics industry development according to the characteristics of Jiangsu ’s regional logistics demands.

Keywords regional logistics; logistics demands; cointegration test; regional economy; Jiangsu Province

目 錄
摘 要 Ⅰ
Abstract Ⅱ
第1章 緒論 - 1 -
1.1 研究背景和意義 - 1 -
1.1.1 研究背景 - 1 -
1.1.2 研究意義 - 3 -
1.2 研究現(xiàn)狀 - 4 -
1.2.1 國外研究現(xiàn)狀 - 4 -
1.2.2 國內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 - 5 -
1.3 研究內(nèi)容、研究方法及創(chuàng)新點 - 7 -
1.3.1 研究內(nèi)容 - 7 -
1.3.2 研究方法 - 7 -
1.3.3 創(chuàng)新點 - 8 -
1.4 結(jié)構(gòu)安排及技術(shù)路線 - 8 -
1.4.1 結(jié)構(gòu)安排 - 8 -
1.4.2 技術(shù)路線 - 9 -
第2章 基本理論 - 10 -
2.1 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展概述 - 10 -
2.1.1 區(qū)域與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的定義 - 10 -
2.1.2 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的內(nèi)涵 - 11 -
2.1.3 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的特征 - 11 -
2.2 區(qū)域物流與物流需求 - 12 -
2.2.1 區(qū)域物流概念和特點 - 12 -
2.2.2 物流需求概念和特點 - 14 --..