摘要：

基于對(duì)中國(guó)能源消耗的基本分析，本文運(yùn)用1990-2004年的能源消耗與GDP等相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析，建立中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源消耗的計(jì)量模型，最后得出中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的總量仍然在較大程度上依賴于煤炭資源的消耗的結(jié)論。同時(shí)通過(guò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)拉動(dòng)能源消費(fèi)的分析也可以看出中國(guó)的能源消耗和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是相互影響的關(guān)系，不僅經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源的依賴性較強(qiáng)而且經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源的需求也有相當(dāng)?shù)睦瓌?dòng)作用，二者是具有較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性。因此在走新型工業(yè)化道路的過(guò)程中制定好能源政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)政策使二者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展從而最終促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)健成長(zhǎng)具有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的指導(dǎo)意義。
關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó) 能源消耗 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)

The Economic Analysis between Chinese Economic Growth and Energy Consumption


Abstract : Based on the Chinese energy consumption basic analysis, this article carries on the measurement analysis by using 1990-2004 correlation data between energy consumption and GDP. Then establishes the measurement model, and finally obtains the conclusion that the overall economic growth of China is still a large extent dependent on the coal resource consumption .At the same time we can also see that China's energy consumption and economic growth is mutual influence relations by stimulating economic growth in energy consumption analysis .Not only the economic growth depend on energy but the economic growth is also a very stimulating role to the energy. This two variables is a two-way causation. So in taking a new ...


目錄
摘要 1
ABSTRACT 1
引言 1
1．中國(guó)的能源消耗問(wèn)題 2
1.1中國(guó)能源瓶頸日益突出 2
1.2 能源需求高速增長(zhǎng) 3
1.3能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)低度化 4
1.4能源消費(fèi)的生態(tài)成本過(guò)高 5
1.5人均能源消費(fèi)水平不高 6
1.6 能源利用效率低 6
2．中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源消耗關(guān)系 7
2.1經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu) 8
2.2經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度 8
3經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源消耗關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析 9
3.1模型框架 9
3.2能源對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響 10
3.2.1以GDP為因變量，能源消耗總量為自變量進(jìn)行回歸 10
3.2.2以GDP為因變量，各種能源為自變量進(jìn)行回歸 11
3.3 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源消耗的拉動(dòng)作用分析 12
4 結(jié)論及政策含義 13
4.1 從近期考慮 13
4.2從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看 14
參考文獻(xiàn) 14
致謝 15

參考文獻(xiàn)
[1]蘇迅 ，.國(guó)土資源資產(chǎn)與市場(chǎng) [M]. 中國(guó)大地出版社
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[3]馬洪 ，王夢(mèng)奎 ， 《中國(guó)發(fā)展研究——國(guó)務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心研究報(bào)告選》[J]. 中國(guó)發(fā)展出版社