摘 要
石油作為當今世界的重要能源，目前約占全球能源消費的40%，被稱為“工業(yè)的血液”和“經(jīng)濟的命脈”，對各國經(jīng)濟都有著重大影響。它的價格變化必然牽動著經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的敏感神經(jīng)，因此，石油價格波動對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響早已成為世界各國特別是工業(yè)發(fā)達國家關(guān)注和研究的重點。
自從1993年我國成為石油凈進口國以來，我國石油對外依存度逐年提高 。目前，我國正處于經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展和工業(yè)化的快速進程中，對石油的需求量持續(xù)上漲，石油作為一種必不可少的戰(zhàn)略資源和基礎(chǔ)化工原料，關(guān)系著各行各業(yè)的發(fā)展，對整個國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展起著越來越重要的影響。因此，研究國際石油價格波動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響有助于了解國際石油價格波動是如何影響我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的，同時也能夠為我國政府部門在面臨石油沖擊時采取合適的經(jīng)濟政策提供指導意見，從而有助于促進我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展。
本文主要研究國際石油價格波動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響問題，先從理論上分析了國際石油價格波動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響，然后介紹了格蘭杰因果檢驗和協(xié)整檢驗，在此基礎(chǔ)上，采用誤差修正模型（ECM模型）對國際石油價格波動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響進行了實證研究，最后得出結(jié)論：
（1）國際石油價格波動對我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、消費者價格指數(shù)和廣義貨幣供應量都具有Granger因果關(guān)系，且滯后期幾乎是一致的。同時，國際石油價格和我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、消費者價格指數(shù)和廣義貨幣供應量之間也具有協(xié)整關(guān)系。
（2）國際石油價格沖擊對我國產(chǎn)出水平和廣義貨幣供應量具有顯著的負影響，而對我國的消費者價格水平具有顯著的正影響。而且，相對于國際石油價格波動對我國貨幣政策以及物價水平的影響，對我國產(chǎn)出水平的影響更大一些。
（3）由于我國石油價格定價機制和國際石油價格機制并未完全接軌，而且石油價格處于生產(chǎn)鏈的最頂端，因此，國際石油價格沖擊對我國產(chǎn)出水平和廣義貨幣供應量的影響具有一定的滯后效應。
（4）國際石油價格變動在短期內(nèi)就能引起我國消費者價格水平、廣義貨幣供應量和我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的波動；另一方面，我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)水平和貨幣政策的變化也會明顯引起國際石油價格的波動，而我國消費者價格水平的變動并不能明顯引起國際石油價格的波動。

關(guān)鍵詞 國際石油價格；價格波動；宏觀經(jīng)濟

Abstract
Oil, as an important energy source in today’s world, is accounting for about 40% of the global energy consumption, which is known as “Industrial blood” and “economic lifeline” and has a significant impact on national economies. The changes of its price naturally affect the sensitive nerve of the economic field. Therefore, the impacts that oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic have become the focus of attention and study in the world, particularly in industrial countries.
China became a net oil importer since 1993, oil external dependence has increased annually. At present, China is in the process of rapid economic development and industrialization. Therefore, the demand for petroleum goes up continuously. Oil, as an essential strategic resource and basis of chemical raw materials, concerns the development of all trades and professions and plays an increasingly important influence on the national economic development. Therefore, the study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomic can help us to understand how the international oil price fluctuations affect Chinese macroeconomic and guide our government to take appropriate economic policies in the face of oil shocks, thus contributing to the healthy development of Chinese macro-economic.
This paper mainly studies the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic. It starts with the theoretical analysis of the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic and then introduces the Granger causality test and Cointegration test. On the basis, this article uses ECM model to do the empirical research. The final conclusion:
(1) The international oil price fluctuations have Granger causality on Chinese gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply and the lag is almost identical. Meanwhile, international oil prices have cointegration-relationship with China’s gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply.
(2) The international oil price shock has a significant negative impact on the output levels and the broad money supply, while has a significant positive impact on the consumer price level. Moreover, compared to the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on the monetary policy and the price level, the international oil price shocks has greater impact on the level of Chinese output.
(3) Because the oil pricing mechanism of our country has not totally integrated with the international oil price mechanism and oil prices are at the top of the production chain, the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic has a certain lag effect.
(4) The international oil price movements can cause the fluctuations of the consumer price level, the broad money supply and our gross domestic product in the short term, while the changes of our gross domestic product and monetary policy have a significant impact on international oil prices. However, changes in the consumer price level cannot obviously cause the fluctuation of t the international oil price.

Keywords Internation..