摘 要
石油作為當(dāng)今世界的重要能源，目前約占全球能源消費(fèi)的40%，被稱(chēng)為“工業(yè)的血液”和“經(jīng)濟(jì)的命脈”，對(duì)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)都有著重大影響。它的價(jià)格變化必然牽動(dòng)著經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的敏感神經(jīng)，因此，石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響早已成為世界各國(guó)特別是工業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家關(guān)注和研究的重點(diǎn)。
自從1993年我國(guó)成為石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó)以來(lái)，我國(guó)石油對(duì)外依存度逐年提高 。目前，我國(guó)正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展和工業(yè)化的快速進(jìn)程中，對(duì)石油的需求量持續(xù)上漲，石油作為一種必不可少的戰(zhàn)略資源和基礎(chǔ)化工原料，關(guān)系著各行各業(yè)的發(fā)展，對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展起著越來(lái)越重要的影響。因此，研究國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響有助于了解國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)是如何影響我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的，同時(shí)也能夠?yàn)槲覈?guó)政府部門(mén)在面臨石油沖擊時(shí)采取合適的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策提供指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)，從而有助于促進(jìn)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。
本文主要研究國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響問(wèn)題，先從理論上分析了國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，然后介紹了格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)，在此基礎(chǔ)上，采用誤差修正模型（ECM模型）對(duì)國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究，最后得出結(jié)論：
（1）國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量都具有Granger因果關(guān)系，且滯后期幾乎是一致的。同時(shí)，國(guó)際石油價(jià)格和我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量之間也具有協(xié)整關(guān)系。
（2）國(guó)際石油價(jià)格沖擊對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)出水平和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量具有顯著的負(fù)影響，而對(duì)我國(guó)的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格水平具有顯著的正影響。而且，相對(duì)于國(guó)際石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策以及物價(jià)水平的影響，對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)出水平的影響更大一些。
（3）由于我國(guó)石油價(jià)格定價(jià)機(jī)制和國(guó)際石油價(jià)格機(jī)制并未完全接軌，而且石油價(jià)格處于生產(chǎn)鏈的最頂端，因此，國(guó)際石油價(jià)格沖擊對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)出水平和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量的影響具有一定的滯后效應(yīng)。
（4）國(guó)際石油價(jià)格變動(dòng)在短期內(nèi)就能引起我國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格水平、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量和我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的波動(dòng)；另一方面，我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)水平和貨幣政策的變化也會(huì)明顯引起國(guó)際石油價(jià)格的波動(dòng)，而我國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格水平的變動(dòng)并不能明顯引起國(guó)際石油價(jià)格的波動(dòng)。

關(guān)鍵詞 國(guó)際石油價(jià)格；價(jià)格波動(dòng)；宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)

Abstract
Oil, as an important energy source in today’s world, is accounting for about 40% of the global energy consumption, which is known as “Industrial blood” and “economic lifeline” and has a significant impact on national economies. The changes of its price naturally affect the sensitive nerve of the economic field. Therefore, the impacts that oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic have become the focus of attention and study in the world, particularly in industrial countries.
China became a net oil importer since 1993, oil external dependence has increased annually. At present, China is in the process of rapid economic development and industrialization. Therefore, the demand for petroleum goes up continuously. Oil, as an essential strategic resource and basis of chemical raw materials, concerns the development of all trades and professions and plays an increasingly important influence on the national economic development. Therefore, the study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomic can help us to understand how the international oil price fluctuations affect Chinese macroeconomic and guide our government to take appropriate economic policies in the face of oil shocks, thus contributing to the healthy development of Chinese macro-economic.
This paper mainly studies the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic. It starts with the theoretical analysis of the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic and then introduces the Granger causality test and Cointegration test. On the basis, this article uses ECM model to do the empirical research. The final conclusion:
(1) The international oil price fluctuations have Granger causality on Chinese gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply and the lag is almost identical. Meanwhile, international oil prices have cointegration-relationship with China’s gross domestic product, consumer price index and the broad money supply.
(2) The international oil price shock has a significant negative impact on the output levels and the broad money supply, while has a significant positive impact on the consumer price level. Moreover, compared to the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on the monetary policy and the price level, the international oil price shocks has greater impact on the level of Chinese output.
(3) Because the oil pricing mechanism of our country has not totally integrated with the international oil price mechanism and oil prices are at the top of the production chain, the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic has a certain lag effect.
(4) The international oil price movements can cause the fluctuations of the consumer price level, the broad money supply and our gross domestic product in the short term, while the changes of our gross domestic product and monetary policy have a significant impact on international oil prices. However, changes in the consumer price level cannot obviously cause the fluctuation of t the international oil price.

Keywords Internation..