摘 要
在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的當(dāng)今時(shí)代，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理已成為財(cái)務(wù)管理的核心問(wèn)題。人們對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的認(rèn)識(shí)也越來(lái)越廣泛和全面，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)警、防范和應(yīng)對(duì)的研究也更深入。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究就是針對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出的，其目的是，發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題和潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，從源頭阻止企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生，減少由于企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所造成的損失，提高企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理水平和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。
隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，船舶制造業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占的比重越來(lái)越大。在船舶制造業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的同時(shí)，船舶制造企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也是越來(lái)越激烈，可能會(huì)由于各種難以預(yù)料或控制的因素而產(chǎn)生財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使企業(yè)遭受損失。對(duì)于船舶類(lèi)上市企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，因?yàn)槠渥陨淼奶攸c(diǎn)，一直是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究領(lǐng)域的空白，有鑒于此，本文選取我國(guó)上市船舶制造企業(yè)作為研究對(duì)象，在對(duì)上市船舶制造企業(yè)進(jìn)行特性及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)研究，提出了船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并進(jìn)一步建立了上市船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型。
本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)典財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的綜述；其次，對(duì)我國(guó)船舶制造企業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析，并對(duì)我國(guó)船舶制造企業(yè)進(jìn)行特點(diǎn)分析，更進(jìn)一步分析了其財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其影響因素；然后在上市船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)研究，構(gòu)建了上市船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系，最后加以實(shí)證分析。

關(guān)鍵詞 船舶制造企業(yè)；財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；預(yù)警研究；判別模型


Abstract
Nowadays financial risk management has become a core issue with China’s rapid economic development. People's awareness of risks has become increasingly broad and comprehensive; meanwhile the research on early warning and precautions against risks is done much further now. The research on Financial Risk Management is to help enterprises reduce financial risks, which is to find out what has been or will be going wrong in the process of managing the enterprises’ finance and get rid of it at the very beginning so that we could heighten their financial management level and increase economic efficiency.
The role that ship manufacturing enterprises plays in the national economy is becoming more and more important. Ship manufacturing enterprises are growing in such a high speed that competition between enterprises becomes increasingly fierce. For these reasons a variety of unexpected or uncontrollable factors may result in financial risks and economic losses. For a listed ship manufacturing enterprise very few studies are done in predicting financial risks. So I choose to carry out a study in this field that based on the analysis of the features of ship manufacturing enterprises and some experience in other related fields. In this essay I propose a system of early warning indicators of financial risk and then build a model.
At the beginning of the essay I make a detailed review of the classical models at home and abroad. In the second part I analyses the current situation of ship manufacturing enterprises and their features. And I list the possible financial risks and the factors that would affect them. In the last part I propose a system of early warning indicators of financial risks and analyses it with an example.

Keywords Ship Manufacturing Enterprise; Financial Risks; Early-warning Research; Discriminate Model

目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究目的和意義 2
1.2.1 研究目的 2
1.2.2 研究意義 2
1.3 文獻(xiàn)綜述 2
1.3.1 國(guó)外文獻(xiàn)綜述 2
1.3.2 國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)綜述 4
1.4 研究?jī)?nèi)容、研究方法及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 6
1.4.1 研究?jī)?nèi)容 6
1.4.2 研究方法 6
1.4.3 創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 7
1.5 本章小結(jié) 8
第2章 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警相關(guān)理論 9
2.1 相關(guān)概念 9
2.1.1 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的概念及功能 9
2.1.2 船舶制造企業(yè)的概念及特點(diǎn) 9
2.2 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的類(lèi)型和特征 10
2.3 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建立的理論基礎(chǔ) 11
2.4 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的作用與意義 12
2.4.1 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的作用 12
2.4.2 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的意義 13
2.5 本章小結(jié) 13
第3章 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其影響因素分析 14
3.1 我國(guó)船舶制造企業(yè)現(xiàn)狀分析 14
3.1.1 船舶業(yè)進(jìn)入“獨(dú)特機(jī)遇期” 14
3.1.2 船舶業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩 15
3.2 我國(guó)船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 16
3.2.1 政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 16
3.2.2 采購(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 16
3.2.3 撤單風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 16
3.2.4 匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 16
3.3 我國(guó)船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素分析 17
3.3.1 國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控的影響 17
3.3.2 相關(guān)行業(yè)的不穩(wěn)定因素 17
3.3.3 技術(shù)相對(duì)落后的影響 17
3.3.4 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的不穩(wěn)定因素 17
3.4 本章小結(jié) 18
第4章 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的構(gòu)建 19
4.1 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的的原則和功能 19
4.1.1 船舶制造企業(yè)建立財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警機(jī)制的原則 19
4.1.2 船舶制造企業(yè)建立財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警機(jī)制的功能 20
4.2 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的構(gòu)建 22
4.3 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的構(gòu)建 27
4.4 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型的建立 30
4.3.1 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的定性方法 30
4.3.2 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的定量方法 31
4.3.3 現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)分析結(jié)果 34
4.5 基于資本結(jié)構(gòu)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量 35
4.5.1 財(cái)務(wù)杠桿 35
4.5.2 資金投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的衡量 35
4.5.3 資本減值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的衡量 35
4.5.4 債轉(zhuǎn)股過(guò)程中的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 36
4.6 本章小結(jié) 37
第5章 船舶制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警案例研究 38
5.1 系統(tǒng)樣本的選擇 38
5.2 單變量模型指標(biāo)計(jì)算及分析 38
5.2.1 財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)分析 38
5.2.2 非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)分析 41
5.3 多變量模型指標(biāo)計(jì)算及分..