摘 要

現(xiàn)代物流作為一種提高效益的有效途徑，己成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)和新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)，目前被認(rèn)為是第三利潤(rùn)源泉。發(fā)展現(xiàn)代物流是增強(qiáng)一個(gè)國(guó)家、地區(qū)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的重要途徑。
隨著我國(guó)加入WTO和西部大開(kāi)發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的進(jìn)一步深入，某市作為中國(guó)最年輕的直轄市，同時(shí)是西南地區(qū)的交通樞紐和制造業(yè)基地。經(jīng)濟(jì)必將進(jìn)入騰飛，同時(shí)會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量物流，但是，由于交通規(guī)劃、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、政策措施等原因，某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展速度緩慢。因此，如何利用現(xiàn)代物流理論對(duì)某市市物流流向流量分析研究，借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)與措施，并結(jié)合某市市的實(shí)際情況提出有效的對(duì)策建議，對(duì)加快某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的速度，促進(jìn)某市市經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)快速健康協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
文章一、二、三部分，對(duì)研究目的、意義相關(guān)理論概念和某市市物流現(xiàn)狀作了介紹分析。以交通運(yùn)輸方式為切入點(diǎn)，分析研究物流流向；接著用貨運(yùn)量結(jié)合某市市中轉(zhuǎn)貨運(yùn)比例表示物流量。為下面的研究論述工作做了鋪墊。
第四部分首先分析了2006年某市市主要物流流向以及與各流向區(qū)域主要交通聯(lián)系方式。然后結(jié)合物流量的各影響因素，包括某市市貨運(yùn)量、流量區(qū)域貨運(yùn)量和貨運(yùn)通道，導(dǎo)出本文研究的重點(diǎn)，各物流流向物流量占某市物流總量比例的公式。最后以2020年為預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)，結(jié)合相關(guān)政策性文件給出了2020年某市與各流向區(qū)域的交通通道以及聯(lián)系方式變化情況，接著對(duì)公路、鐵路和水路三種貨運(yùn)量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，結(jié)合公式算出了2020年各流向流量分布情況。
第五部分針對(duì)前面的研究，本文提出了某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。
第六部分說(shuō)明本文結(jié)論和研究展望，為以后研究與改進(jìn)提供參考。


關(guān)鍵詞：物流，物流流向，物流流量，物流流量預(yù)測(cè)

ABSTRACT

Modern logistics as an effective way to improve efficiency, has become the national economy's pillar industries and new economic growth points, is now considered is the third profit source. Enhance the development of modern logistics is a national, regional competitiveness in an important way.
As China's accession to the WTO and the western development strategy of further in-depth, and Chongqing as the youngest municipality in China, while the southwestern region is the transport hub and manufacturing base. Into the economy will take off at the same time will have a lot of logistics, but due to transportation planning, industrial policy measures and other reasons, the Chongqing Municipal development of the logistics industry has been slow. Therefore, how to use modern logistics of the Chongqing Municipal logistics flow of traffic analysis study, learn from developed countries and regions with the advanced experience of measures, combined with the actual situation in Chongqing Municipality to propose effective measures to accelerate the development of the logistics industry in Chongqing City, the speed, Chongqing Municipality to promote economic and social coordination, rapid and healthy development is of important practical significance.
PartⅠ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ ：The purpose of the study, the significance of theoretical concepts related to logistics and Chongqing Municipality made an introductory analysis of the status quo. To transport mode for the entry point, the analysis of the logistics flows and then combined with cargo transit cargo in Chongqing Municipality said that the proportion of logistics. Below is the research work done on the stage.
Part IV： First, Chongqing Municipal major logistics flows and flows with the main regional transport links means. Then with the logistics of the various factors, including the Chongqing Municipal cargo, freight and cargo traffic regional channels, the focus of this paper is derived, in the logistics flow of logistics in Chongqing account for the proportion of the total logistics formula. Finally, 2020 is forecast target, with the relevant policy documents presented in 2020 with the Chongqing region of the flow of traffic access and the associated changes in the way, and then on road, rail and sea cargo for the three forecasts, calculated with the formula The 2020 distribution of the flow of traffic.
Part V for the previous study, this paper, the Chongqing Municipal Development of the logistics industry recommendations.
Part VI conclusions and that this study prospects for future research and improvement of reference.


Key words： Logistics, Logistics Flow, Volume of Logistics Flow, Forecast


目 錄

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
1緒論 1
1.1 課題研究目的 1
1.2 課題研究意義 1
1.2.1 課題研究學(xué)術(shù)意義 1
1.2.2 課題研究的實(shí)用意義 2
1.3本文的主要內(nèi)容 2
2相關(guān)概念的理論研究 3
2.1物流概念介紹 3
2.2 物流流量概念及流量預(yù)測(cè)方法介紹 4
2.3 物流流向相關(guān)概念介紹 4
3國(guó)內(nèi)及某市市物流現(xiàn)狀分析 6
3.1 WTO時(shí)代我國(guó)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀 6
3.1.1從國(guó)內(nèi)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展速度看 6
3.1.2從國(guó)內(nèi)物流企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)方式來(lái)看 6
3.1.3從國(guó)內(nèi)物流運(yùn)作模式來(lái)看 6
3.1.4從國(guó)內(nèi)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)空間布局來(lái)看 7
3.1.5從國(guó)內(nèi)物流市場(chǎng)格局來(lái)看 7
3.2 某市市物流現(xiàn)狀 7
3.2.1 物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施——交通狀況 8
3.2.2 某市對(duì)外口岸建設(shè)情況 9
3.2.3 某市市物流人才儲(chǔ)備狀況 11
3.2.4某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的政策制度狀況 11
4某市市物流主要流向流量分析及預(yù)測(cè) 12
4.1 某市市物流主要流向分析 12
4.2 某市市物流各個(gè)流向上的物流量 13
4.3 2020年某市市物流流向及其交..