演化式類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)評(píng)估信息評(píng)鑒系統(tǒng)對(duì)預(yù)測財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的影響

摘 要
本研究旨在以類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)合信息揭露評(píng)鑒系統(tǒng)對(duì)公司進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測，探討政府推動(dòng)信息揭露評(píng)鑒系統(tǒng)是否真能提升公司信息透明度、健全公司治理制度以及增加公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性。以傳統(tǒng)羅吉斯回歸作為倒傳遞類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)（BPN）與演化式類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(ENN)之財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測模型預(yù)測能力的比較基準(zhǔn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)信息揭露程度可增加財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性，亦即信息揭露評(píng)鑒系統(tǒng)具備有用性；以預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性而言，演化式類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型優(yōu)于倒傳遞類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型優(yōu)于羅吉斯回歸模型，因此，應(yīng)優(yōu)先采用演化式類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)來建構(gòu)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測模型。本研究結(jié)果希能有助于財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表使用者進(jìn)行正確的投資決策，再者，供管制機(jī)關(guān)推動(dòng)公司治理制度，促使強(qiáng)化信息公開機(jī)制之依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：信息揭露、公司治理、財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)、倒傳遞類神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、遺傳算法
The Neural Network and Information Disclosure System to the Prediction of Financial Distress status
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to construct back propagation neural network (BPN) and evolutionary neural network (ENN) based on information disclosure system. This paper investigates the usefulness of information disclosure system. It is find that Information disclosure system can not only increase information transparency but also improve preciseness of financial distress prediction. Compared with the traditional used logit model, it can discover that back propagation neural network and evolutionary neural network can provide more accurate prediction and information value. According preciseness of prediction, evolutionary neural network is better than back propagation neural network. Thus, adaptation genetic algorithms on neural network to construct financial distress prediction model is the best choice. Besides, this research’s result can not only provide users of financial statement to make good decision of investment but also help regulator practiced corporate governance mechanism and enhance information disclosure system.

Keywords: Information Disclosure, Corporate governance, Financial Distress, Back Propagation Neural network, Genetic Algorithms

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