摘要

交通事故的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，尤其國家一級(jí)的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)監(jiān)控和預(yù)測(cè)事故的發(fā)展，積極或消極檢測(cè)事故的發(fā)展，以及對(duì)定義安全目標(biāo)和評(píng)估工業(yè)安全特別有益。事故分析是應(yīng)用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顧性分析，能夠?qū)π麻_發(fā)的交通安全系統(tǒng)和特殊過程的安全措施進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。目前迫切需要一個(gè)將實(shí)時(shí)事故分析與研究相結(jié)合的行為。將自動(dòng)檢測(cè)和視頻錄制相結(jié)合的研究交通事故的科研論文會(huì)比較容易接受。這種類型的研究最終會(huì)對(duì)交通理念有個(gè)完善的認(rèn)識(shí)。

關(guān)鍵字：后果;目的;描述;限制;關(guān)注;事故分析;可能性

1．簡(jiǎn)介
　　　
本文主要是基于個(gè)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，研究有關(guān)交通安全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。由這些經(jīng)驗(yàn)推導(dǎo)出的哲學(xué)思考就像通過研究和統(tǒng)計(jì)得出的實(shí)踐觀點(diǎn)。而這些調(diào)查數(shù)字已經(jīng)在其他地方發(fā)表了。

在缺少直接觀察的事故中，許多方法論問題的產(chǎn)生，導(dǎo)致不能直接測(cè)試對(duì)結(jié)果持續(xù)討論。通過看事故視頻來討論是富有成效的。事實(shí)證明，用來解釋事故的大部分有關(guān)信息就是事故中缺少的記錄。深入研究還無法回憶起所有的必要的用來測(cè)試有關(guān)事故發(fā)生的假設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)，。尤其是車-車相撞發(fā)生的車禍，這是在荷蘭城市道路交叉口錄制的視頻，一輛從岔路駛來的汽車與主干路的汽車相撞，下列問題可以問：為什么汽車來自次干路上，突然加速后又幾乎停止，撞上了在左側(cè)主路的一輛汽車呢？為什么沒有注意到正在駛來的車？是不是因?yàn)閮绍噺挠疫咇倎?，司機(jī)因?yàn)榍懊娴慕徊鏋樗麄兲峁┝丝赡苄远锝镉?jì)較？難道他向左看過，但他認(rèn)為停在拐角處的綠色貨車能讓他停下來？當(dāng)然，交通狀況并不復(fù)雜。目前這個(gè)事故中沒有騎自行車或行人在擁擠路口分散他的注意。如果停著的綠色車能夠在五分鐘內(nèi)消失，這兩輛車可能就不會(huì)相撞。在事故發(fā)生的相關(guān)條件下，幾乎不可能觀察下一個(gè)交通行為，因?yàn)榻煌ㄊ鹿适遣豢深A(yù)見的。由于新的視頻設(shè)備和自動(dòng)檢測(cè)事故設(shè)備的不斷發(fā)展，如在收集數(shù)據(jù)方面不需要很高的成本就能變得越來越逼真。必要的增加數(shù)據(jù)類型也能更好的解釋交通中存在的危險(xiǎn)因素。關(guān)于事故分析的可能性和限制性的問題是不容易回答的，我們不能確切的分析交通事故。因?yàn)槭鹿史治龊w了每一個(gè)活動(dòng)中的不同背景，并根據(jù)不同的信息來源范圍來補(bǔ)充資料，特別是收集事故的數(shù)據(jù)，背景資料等，我們首先要看看在交通安全領(lǐng)域的活動(dòng)周期然后再回答事故分析的可能性與限制。這些行為主要是與交通系統(tǒng)的安全管理有關(guān)，有些則是相關(guān)的研究活動(dòng)。

Abstraet

Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) eva luation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) eva luation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.

Keyword：Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities

1. Introduction.
　　
This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.
　　
From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the accident.For a particular car-car accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car coming from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car coming from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after coming almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars coming from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not complicated. At the moment of the accident there were no bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection. The parked green van disappeared within five ..