基于多米諾效應(yīng)的化工企業(yè)事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析研究

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摘 要
各類化工工藝根據(jù)其危險(xiǎn)性和嚴(yán)重性會(huì)涉及到各種各樣的危險(xiǎn)物質(zhì)，而化工裝置不斷向大型化以及布置的密集化發(fā)展導(dǎo)致重大危險(xiǎn)源急劇增多，并且不少地區(qū)還存在著重大危險(xiǎn)源過(guò)于集中的現(xiàn)象，一旦發(fā)生事故極易引發(fā)多米諾效應(yīng)，這樣的現(xiàn)狀使得我國(guó)化學(xué)工業(yè)的安全生產(chǎn)面臨更加嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。因此建立一套有效分析多米諾效應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法是必要和必須的。
為了分析重大化工事故中由于化工裝置失效導(dǎo)致多米諾效應(yīng)而引發(fā)二次事故的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，需要建立針對(duì)多米諾場(chǎng)景和效應(yīng)后果的定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法。本文采用采用概率組合方法計(jì)算事故影響區(qū)域內(nèi)目標(biāo)對(duì)象發(fā)生二次事故的最可能組合及概率；二次目標(biāo)設(shè)備的損壞概率根據(jù)設(shè)備損壞概率模型來(lái)計(jì)算，其中在計(jì)算設(shè)備失效時(shí)，考慮了包括熱輻射、爆炸沖擊波以及碎片沖擊三種物理效應(yīng)的作用效果；最后根據(jù)人體脆弱模型分析計(jì)算多米諾效應(yīng)所造成的后果，將多米諾效應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化并得到直觀的分析結(jié)果，其中個(gè)人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)由死亡概率表示可繪制個(gè)人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖，社會(huì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)根據(jù)累計(jì)死亡人數(shù)繪制F-N曲線表示。

關(guān)鍵詞：多米諾效應(yīng)；化工事故；定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)；概率模型

ABSTRACT

All kinds of chemical process based on the risk and severity will involve a variety of dangerous substances. Continuously toward large-scale chemical plant and arrangement of intensive development, leading to a sharp increase in major hazard installation. Many areas exists the phenomenon of concentration of major hazard, it is easy to trigger a domino effect. Such situation makes the safe production of chemical industry in China is facing more serious challenges. Therefore to establish a set of effective method analysis the risk of a domino effect is necessary and essential.
To analyze major chemical accidents caused by chemical equipment failure in a domino effect and the secondary accident risk. It is necessary to build on effect of domino scenarios and consequence of quantitative risk analysis method. This paper USES the probability combination method to calculate the accident affected area target is the most possible combinations and probability of secondary accidents. The secondary target device accord the equipment damage probability model to calculate the damage probability, including thermal radiation, explosion shock wave and fragment impact the effects of three physical effects. According to the human body is fragile model analysis and calculation the domino effect caused by the consequences, to quantify the risk of a domino effect and intuitive analysis results are obtained. Personal risk by death probability according to the individual risk can be drawn and social risk F - N curve drawing according to the total death toll.

KEY WORDS: domino effect; Chemical accidents; quantitative risk assessment; Probability model


目錄
一 緒論 1
1.1選題背景和意義 1
1.2國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.1國(guó)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.2國(guó)內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 4
1.3本論文研究?jī)?nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介 4
二 研究基礎(chǔ) 6
2.1研究的理論基礎(chǔ) 6
2.1.1安全學(xué)的基本原理 6
2.1.2多米諾事故的定義 8
2.1.3多米諾事故的發(fā)生機(jī)理 9
2.1.4多米諾事故研究方法的基礎(chǔ)理論 9
2.2多米諾事故分析的一般過(guò)程 10
三 主要研究?jī)?nèi)容 12
3.1 多米諾事故的定量分析計(jì)算 12
3.1.1多米諾效應(yīng)的物理量作用機(jī)理 12
3.1.2多米諾場(chǎng)景的分析計(jì)算 12
3.2目標(biāo)設(shè)備損壞概率的計(jì)算及閾值的確定 15
3.2.1設(shè)備損壞概率分析和物理效應(yīng)的閾值 15
3.2.2物理效應(yīng)耦合計(jì)算法 18
3.2.3基于全概率公式對(duì)設(shè)備損壞概率的計(jì)算 19
3.3對(duì)兩種多米諾事故場(chǎng)景計(jì)算方法的分析 20
3.4多米諾效應(yīng)的后果分析 20
3.4.1致死概率的計(jì)算 20
3.4.2風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的計(jì)算 22
四 實(shí)例計(jì)算 24
五 結(jié)論 29
參考文獻(xiàn) 30
附錄一 33
附錄